A Letter to the President

President George W. Bush
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20500

Dear Mr. President:

I am writing to express my strong support for your efforts to reduce the financial burden imposed by the federal government on all taxpayers. Your program for across-the-board tax reductions offers not only a necessary stimulus to our civilian economy and morally imperative relief for our countrymen from excessive taxation. In my judgement, it also appears entirely consistent with, indeed highly conducive to, the realization of another of your deeply held priorities — namely, your commitment to rebuild the nation’s military so as to enable it to contend with the serious security challenges we will likely face in the twenty-first century.

After all, to the extent that your program of comprehensive tax simplification and reductions translates into — as you have put it — a “refund” for every American who pays taxes, the effect will assuredly be to contribute to long-term economic growth. Such growth will, in turn, add to future federal revenues and thereby facilitate the very substantial recapitalization of the armed forces. This step has been made absolutely necessary by roughly a decade of under-investment in the uniformed services, a practice that has seriously degraded the maintenance, training, and modernization activities critical to the combat readiness of today’s military — and tomorrow’s.

As you know, responsible estimates vary greatly as to what it will take to effect such a recapitalization. Among the most conservative of these analyses has been that performed by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The CBO has found that the necessary refurbishing of the military will require a minimum additional $50 billion over each of the next five years, and perhaps beyond.

I anticipate that, if the review of strategy and requirements recently launched by Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld is done in an objective and rigorous way, the actual amount needed for the military will be seen to be closer to a $100 billion-per-year plus-up over the next five years. This would have to start in fiscal year 2002, following an $8-10 billion supplemental for the remaining months of the current fiscal year.

While these sums are large, even the higher add-ons would translate into an allocation of roughly four percent of Gross Domestic Product to national security. Four cents on the national wealth “dollar” for safeguarding our freedoms at home and interests abroad hardly seems excessive — especially since we have generally spent a far higher percentage of GDP for these purposes since the end of the Second World War.

Even in the unlikely event the economy experiences over the next 10 years more than the two downturns built into the CBO models of projected revenues, it would appear that federal income streams will be seen as adequate to meet the needs of both the Defense Department and your other domestic priorities. This will be due in part to the fact that the last Clinton budget contemplated a $220-billion increase in defense spending over the next six-years. As a result, there is a bipartisan “baseline” that goes some way towards underwriting the needed recapitalization. Even legislators who profess concern about the defense add-ons that you will need to propose are likely to support the “out-year” increases President Clinton had recommended, reducing the size of the total plus-up in contention and facilitating the forging of political support for its adoption.

If all else fails, the $1 trillion “rainy-day fund” you propose to be established to insulate our society and economy from the dangers of recession and other contingencies should be more than sufficient to enable the military to be properly rebuilt within available federal government resources.

You are to be commended for the leadership you have shown to date in setting the stage for achieving the fiscal and defense goals you articulated during the presidential campaign and during your first weeks in office. I know I speak for millions of men and women involved in the national security community in communicating my endorsement of your programs to reinvigorate the United States’ civilian economy and to restore its military.

With great respect and best personal regards,

Sincerely yours,

(Signed)

Frank J. Gaffney, Jr
President and CEO