A new US president and Japan’s quadrennial neurosis

Japan has a near-nervous breakdown every four years when the Americans choose a new president. The Americans do too, but that’s another story. 

And now that Donald Trump is the President-elect the Japanese are more nervous than usual. 

The reason? Trump is “unpredictable” – even though after four years of dealing with Mr Trump from 2017-2021, the Japanese ought to have figured him out.

The Commitment to ‘Defend Japan’

For the Japanese, the ideal American president does three things. He holds bilateral summit meetings that declare the alliance is as strong as ever. And he keeps the US military in Japan and US nuclear weapons elsewhere greased up and ready to protect Japan. Most importantly, he doesn’t ask Japan to do anything it doesn’t want to do.

This latter requirement may be the scariest for Japanese officials. 

To them, “unpredictable” translates to the fear of Trump making “unreasonable” requests of Japan.

The United States is on the hook to defend Japan. And certainly, after 60-plus years of the US-Japan alliance, Tokyo should expect requests to do things out of its comfort zone. Especially now that the threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and its friends in Pyongyang and Moscow, is at dangerous levels.

Transactional Fear

Among Japan’s other neuroses (regardless of who is in the White House) is the longstanding fear of “Japan passing.” This is the fear that a new administration might cut a deal with the PRC that leaves Japan out in the cold. Also, “Japan bashing”‘ used to be a fear, when Japan was blamed for America’s shortcomings. However, that isn’t heard so much these days.

There’s also deep-rooted fear that America lacks the total commitment to defend Japan. Thus the Japanese government frequently mentions “extended deterrence” or America’s commitment to use nuclear weapons to defend Japan.

Japan also fears “transactional” Donald Trump hitting them up for more money for host nation support for US forces in Japan. 

But this is a distraction, if not irrational. 

The amounts he might request are pocket change. Any midsized Japanese town probably spends more each year on repaving already repaved streets. And if it keeps American military power “on side” it’s the bargain of a millennium. 

Turning Pressure Into Opportunity

Japan might instead offer to spend any requested amounts for the Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF) itself. That could be to improve warfighting capabilities, war stocks, and terms of service for military personnel. JSDF missed recruitment targets by 50% in 2023. And part of the reason is that pay and other employment conditions are terrible.

Perhaps reflecting underlying resentment in some quarters on the Japanese side, Japan even looks keen to pick a fight over the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that covers the US military presence. Some in Japan are claiming it gives Americans too many protections.

Maybe the SOFA isn’t perfect, but is picking a fight ― and with your only ally ― that important at this time?

Japanese officials might instead direct their outrage inward toward whoever is responsible for the JSDF not being ready to fight a war.

But Should Japan Worry About Trump?

Not really. 

Look at his first term. He had the best foreign policy team since the first Reagan administration ― and it valued Japan.

For all the worry in 2017 that Trump was going to destroy the Japan-US alliance and make unreasonable demands, what did he ask Japan to do that it wouldn’t have done anyway? 

Nothing much.

Trump’s new team will also have good people handling Asia’s defense and they understand Japan’s importance. They see China as the main threat ― and not our ally Japan.

As for punishing Japan for supposed unfair trade practices? 

There was nothing to write home about in Trump1.

But now there’s talk of Japanese goods being subject to blanket tariffs imposed on all foreign imports. However, don’t bet on it. Wait until campaign talk goes through the process of becoming actual policy. 

Nippon Steel’s offer to buy US Steel will be a good test. Trump and JD Vance opposed it…but wait and see.

The Trump Policy That Really Matters

Tokyo ought to pay close attention to the new administration’s China policy, given Beijing’s visceral intent to teach Japan a lesson.

Trump’s earlier administration was the first since Nixon went to China in 1972 to stand up to the PRC. 

Beijing was backfooted. The Trump administration saw the PRC as an adversary. It was starting to get serious about rebuilding the US military and also about making alliances more balanced. Maybe even actual warfighting alliances. 

China did not like Trump or his team and was even afraid of them.

A second Trump administration will be similar to the first when it comes to taking on America’s enemies – which are Japan’s as well. Too, hopefully, it will stop America’s insane approach of “getting tough” with China on one hand while funding the Chinese Communist Party on the other.

And one hopes Trump2 will not think there is a deal to be cut with the PRC.

The Fentanyl Bellwether

If Japan worries about the US commitment, it might watch the bellwether: Fentanyl.

Chinese-origin fentanyl killed around 250,000 Americans during the Biden term. 

The Biden administration’s response? Set up a working group with the Chinese to discuss the problem. 

Even during Trump’s first term, little was done as fentanyl killed tens of thousands of Americans.

If that’s all Washington does in response to mass murder, one might reasonably doubt Washington’s willingness to fully defend an ally – and risk all-out war, much less nuclear war.

Tokyo’s Response

The Americans have chosen their president. 

Japan can only adjust accordingly. 

Cynics might suggest replaying Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s gifting Mr Trump an expensive golf driver. And trying to hit the links with the president to soothe things out. There’s a temptation to believe that’s why the US didn’t insist Japan do as much as it might have ― such as getting its military and society in shape to fight a possible war.

However, would it have been so bad if Mr Trump had done so?

It’s good to be on friendly terms with Mr Trump, but Japan will do well to prepare to defend itself. And it will need to do far more than it has to date.

The more Japan does for itself, the more the Americans will do for Japan. 

But if it looks like Japan is dragging its feet ― like many of the European nations ― there’s going to be trouble.

Tokyo ought to be grateful that there is an administration in Washington that Beijing doesn’t like. Japan should make the most of this ― and do its part too.