Assessment of Israel’s first strike on Iran in “Operation Repentence”

David Wurmser October 26, 2024
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Overall, based on very initial knowledge and limited information, I would conclude the following results of israel three-wave strike on the night of October 26.
On the positive side, the results were partly strategic but mostly a tactical. Israel:
1. Finally broke the aura of Iranian invincibility. It dispelled the 30- obsession in the west that strike will lead to an apocalyptic result and established precedent for striking Iran directly.  This is no small thing and lifts an analytical and policy straight-jacket that paralyzed Israel and others for decades.  Iran has been exposed as weak; its bluffs and bluster called.  The emperor has only old threadbare underwear.  Not quite nude, but close.
2. ⁠Israel started normalizing striking Iran in the same way that over the years Israeli strikes on Syria are now barely noticed. Today, Israel routinely strikes Syria.
3. ⁠Israel set itself up well for a strike that truly devastates the Iranian regime if Iran responds (the bait for which however I doubt Iran will take).
4. ⁠Israel showed itself to be a tactical genius and a military power rivaled by none in competence — a true pride of the Jewish people.
However, on the negative side of the ledger, the bottom line as far as I am concerned, represents a failed strategic result, for the following reasons:
1. The U.S. wanted Israel to hit mostly what is aligned with what this administration defines as U.S.  priorities, which is anything that helps to harm Russia’s war against Ukraine.  Those sites were, in fact hit.
2. ⁠That Israel limit itself to only those sites and the sites that Israel operationally needs to strike to operate over Iran. Those sites, namely anti-aircraft, were hit.
3. ⁠That Israel NOT hit any site that hurts Iran’s regime and could lead to escalation as defined by Iran’s pre-strike chest-thumping: nuclear, oil, infrastructure, regime figures or symbolic targets.  Those site were in fact NOT hit.
4. ⁠So after a year in which Iran and its proxies killed 2000 Israelis, destroyed up to 60% of cities in the north, sent 250,000 Israelis to be internal refugees, launched a global campaign of Nazi-level anti semitism, sent 600 missiles and drones into Israel, shut down half of Israel’s ports and caused all international airlines to indefinitely stop flying to Israel, tried to kill several of the most senior Israeli officials, sent a drone to hit the sitting Prime Minister’s house … Israel launches a strike that protects Ukraine but leaves everything else untouched.
5. ⁠So after a month of bluster that Israel will change the face of the Middle East, Israel returns to the October 6 strategic concept of “we showed them” and deterrence rather than conduct a strike that shakes the foundations of the Iranian regime and maintain strategic strategic momentum. Instead, it let the United States finally achieve its goal of strategically leashing Israel and forcing it back essentially into a strategically reactive, deescalatory posture.
6. ⁠In fact, it let Iran’s chest thumping, which was designed to panic Washington, to succeed in reshaping Israel’s reaction — in essence giving Iran control over what Israel would hit.
7. ⁠The key strategic gain Israel had in the last months was that it brought victory as understood in terms of regional culture and understanding — that Israel had “lost it” and was “possessed by the Jinn” (מג׳נאון) and the master of the house went crazy (בעל הבית השתגע).  But that concept appropriate for the region was traded in for again a failed Western understanding of conflict management — “restraint is strength”, “we showed them”, Iran got the message”, deterrence.
8. ⁠In short, Iran, whose entire strategy is based on manipulation, chess and using your soul as a weapon against you — all of which depends on your being rational, predictable and manipulate-able— used the power of the U.S. as Israel’s strategic Achilles heal to transform the strategic reality of defeat, retreat and fear it faced in the last two months as Israel has become a dangerous uncontrollable and unpredictable force into a successful effort to return Israel into a controllable, reactive, and manipulate-able position. From there iran now can reassert its domination over setting the agenda and manipulate events to reverse its retreat and return the strategic momentum it had lost back to itself and enter a long range confrontation with Israel on its terms.
9. ⁠Regionally, Israel no longer appears to be the strong horse that can replace indispensable U.S. power, but instead has reverted to being a dependent U.S. vassal in terms of strategic behavior.  Everyone knows this was not the strike Israel needed and could have done, but that it was the strike that Washington imposed on Israel.
10. ⁠Israel’s limiting its strike undermines chances for real peace with Saudi Arabia.   The Saudis were looking for a strong horse that replaces U.S. power.  Instead, they see now that Israel is nothing more than an American vassal — which is useless to them.
I realize this is harsh.
I realize Iran may strike back, so iIsrael might have a second chance, but I am doubtful Iran will take the bait.
Israel’s strike is a form of strategic victory for Iran in regional terms, not matter how much our western minds try to rationalize it as an objective show of strength.  Iran will far more likely respond in ways that continue to reassert its manipulative control over events rather than lash out in a way that allows Israel a second chance.
Conclusion: Israel’s prime minister ordered this strike under withering pressures from every direction inside Israel and from abroad. The leaked plans, hostile demeanor and slightly veiled threats coming from Israel’s key ally and soul-mate, the United States, were wounds that are not easily dismissed.  Israel has a small population less than a tenth of Iran’s while fighting an eight-front war alone and with its allies slowly choking off its arms supply, must look over its shoulder at international institutions that are engage in lawfare to annihilate it and is plagued by an unimaginative defense establishment that suffers deeply from the Western malady of having forgotten the meaning of victory in war.  So israel acted not only alone but with a strong headwind from all directions, even its allies.
The perseverance of Prime Minister Netanyahu despite these forces of sabotage will earn him a hallowed place in history. He has emerged as the only Western leader in power with such vision and resolve to defend what ultimately is the defense of western civilization.
But a sober analysis must identify and overcome the internal forces and hopefully still deliver the strategic victory which at this point it is likely that only Prime Minister Netanyahu has the talent to properly grasp.
By David Wurmser (senior fellow at Center for Security Policy as well as at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and at the Misgav Forum)
David Wurmser
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