Biden softness no cause to celebrate in Japan
Originally published at Asia Times
Less US pressure will please some in Tokyo but for US protection against China Japan must better meet Pentagon needs
Assuming Joseph Biden is inaugurated as the US President on January 20 some Japanese will be happy and some will be unhappy. Happiest of all over the prospects of a President Biden will be the Suga administration and a large part of Japan’s bureaucracy.
Why so? Once Biden is in the White House the pressure is off Japan. With President Donald Trump, the Japanese government never quite knew what Trump would demand of them.
However, a President Biden is easier to figure out. He will demand nothing of the Japanese. So the Suga administration and the government of Japan will need to do nothing more than they feel like doing.
And Tokyo can revert to its preferred, time-tested approach to dealing with the Americans: that is, grimace, do a little teeth sucking, and declare “too difficult” whatever it is the Americans are asking for. And if it costs money, just mention Japan’s “severe fiscal condition.” That always worked in the past – until Trump came along – and it should work with the new American administration.
Biden’s people might complain now and then, but that’s all. They will not apply any serious pressure on Japan. They aren’t that kind of people – like that “transactionalist” Donald Trump who didn’t understand diplomacy, or so his enemies said.
Indeed, as the first order of business from the Biden team Tokyo might expect an apology for Mr Trump having “ruined” the US-Japan alliance by making the Japanese uncomfortable.
And they likely will apologize for Trump having asked for an increase in host nation support money. Tokyo can safely ask for a reduction if it feels like it. So at least for a while Japan can revert to the pre-Trump status quo – doing only what it wants – while depending on the Americans to backstop Japan’s security.
But only for a while? Yes, only for a while. That is maybe three to six months. And the smart Japanese understand this and are none too pleased that Joseph Biden is president-elect.
What’s the problem? In five words: the People’s Republic of China. The Chinese are hell-bent on driving the United States out of Asia and dominating the region. They’ve built up their military to do that and even now, in certain circumstances, the People’s Liberation Army could give the Americans a bloody nose.
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Joe Biden by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0
