Cease-Fire May Not Resolve Tensions Between Azerbaijan and Armenia

Azerbaijan announced a unilateral cease-fire in its ongoing conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory, which lies within Azerbaijan’s borders but remains under Armenian rule.

A previous cease-fire agreement between the two sides was signed in 1994, but the territorial dispute has been ongoing for years.

Azerbaijan has called on the global community to provide a peaceful resolution to the conflict but claims that any further “provocations” would result in offensive operations that would lead to the destruction of the enemy.  Azeri forces claim that Armenians were shelling into Azerbaijan and killing civilians. While Armenia says Azeri forces provoked the situation by trying to forcefully retake key Armenian strategic position.

Azerbaijan claims over the past three days that they lost 15 artillery pieces and 6 tanks but killed or injured 100 of the enemies. While in contrast, Armenia claims to have only lost 18 troops with another 35 injured. Both sides also claim the other is acting the aggressor and reignited the conflict and that each side came under attack.

Stability in the Caucuses is critical for Azerbaijan and other oil producing nations between the Caspian and Black sea. In recent years Azerbaijan has spent nearly $4 billion in weapons largely from the Russian military. Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, has faced civil unrest after major drops in oil prices and the lowering of the Azeri manat by one third of its value. Azerbaijan transits its oil through Georgia to Turkey, bypassing Russia, which is a source of tension with its larger neighbor.

Russia has a major base set up in northern Armenia with troops, tanks, and helicopters, and while Russia is openly Armenia’s largest ally, it has positioned itself as a mediator over the Nargorno-Karabakh. Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that the two sides observe a cease-fire while Russian foreign and defense ministers discussed about how to handle the conflict.

Turkish President Recep Tayipp Erdogan on the other hand, has openly supported the Azerbaijan in their conflict with Armenia by stating, “We pray that our Azerbaijani brothers will prevail in this conflict.” Turkey has conducted military drills and exercises with Azeri forces and has strong relations with the Azerbaijan government in Baku. Armenia to this day accuses the Turks of genocide against Armenians during World War I.

Tensions are still volatile between Turkey and Russia going back last fall when a Russian fighter jet was shot down for flying into Turkish airspace, and also that Russia’s backing of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Sporadic fighting on the front lines has occurred over the past twenty years, but his has been the worst since the 1994 cease-fire.

There has always been ethnic tensions between the largely Muslim nation of Azerbaijan and Orthodox Christian Armenia going back well over a century. The Bolsheviks established Nagorno-Karabakh where they settled a largely Armenian population towards the end of World War I.  In 1991, Azerbaijan was formally granted its independence from the Soviet Union, and used the chaos of its disintegration in order to attempt to retake the Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian-backed separatists financially and militarily supported by Armenia sought to keep the Azerbaijani forces out. From 1988-1994 it was reported that 30,000 people were killed as a result of violence from both sides.