Congo Headed To The Point of No Return

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)  President Jospeh Kabila announced last week there may be no election this November. The DRC is experiencing a culmination of internal and external factors that threaten the countries fragile stability.

Kabila has followed a long line of African leaders who’ve entrenched themselves in office, which include Mobutu Sese Seko, Idriss Deby, Idi Amin, and Yoweri Musevini. Each supersedes their country’s constitution, became embedded corruption, and establish autocratic regimes.

Earlier this week a congregation of Kabila opponents arrived in Washington, D.C. and urged the U.S. congress to take immediate action against Kabila and his administration, ideas included freezing financial assets and restricting foreign travel. The Obama administration has tried with little success to get the Kabila administration to cooperate on issues of human rights and democracy. Obama lack of urgency may now further alienated the DRC and make relations between the U.S.and DRC obsolete.

Olivier Kamiatu, former minister to Kabila and current member of the national assembly, noted that Kabila has sabotaged the electoral process and has implemented a “policy of chaos and fear.” In contrast, Congo ambassador Francois Balumuene noted Kabila is committed to holding fair and peaceful elections, and under no circumstances can Kabila change the constitution.

Senator John McCain wrote a letter to Balumuene this past April, about a report from Human Rights Watch, noting the country’s arbitrary arrests and unlawful detentions.

Tensions only escalated earlier this month, when DRC presidential candidate Moise Katumbi was charged of hiring American mercenaries, as part of his security detail. On May 13, DRC police fired tear gas at Katambi and his supporters as they marched to the prosecutors office in Lubumbashi.  Katumbi was hospitalized  for six days for respiratory distress after inhaling tear gas. On May 19, 2016, the Kabila government put out an arrest warrant for Katumbi.

The Daily Mail reported on May 21, 2016, that Katumbi had been flown to South Africa for further medical treatment, and deemed a wanted man by the Kabila government. In addition, Darryl Lewis,  security advisor for the Jones Group, who was sent down to assist with Katumbi’s security detail,  was arrested and accused by the DRC justice minister of being a mercenary sent to kill Kabila.

Since its independence from Belgium in 1960, the DRC has never had a peaceful transition of power in a democratically elected process, and Kabila’s defiance is only going to make the transition all the more difficult. Kabila has been in power for fifteen years, finishing the remainder of his fathers term who was assassinated in 2001, and winning to highly disputed elections in 2006 and 2011.

More than a decade has passed since Congo’s last conflict, but the eastern region of the DRC remains a hostile environment. Scores of rebels and armed militias still operate in the area, and have been known to launch attacks on civilians.  According to the United Nations more than 2.7 million Congolese were internally displaced during the two DRC conflicts.

Last February, 21 Hutus were killed and another 40 injured by rival Union of Patriots for the Defense of Innocence (UPDI) and NDC (Nduma Defense of Congo) rebels. Tensions have been rising since the Rwandan Hutu militia (FLDR) began operating in Eastern Congo, and have been accused by authorities of killing 14 Nande in the North Kivu province. In 2015, the Congolese Army launched an offensive against the FLDR which displaced many FLDR fighters throughout East Congo.

Many African leaders are concerned that DRC’s political climate could spill over to any of the nine African states that shares its borders. The most notable ongoing internal conflict is in Burudni, a tiny nation just east of the DRC. Burundi has been engaged in a violent conflict for over a year, when President Pierre Nkurunziza announced he would run for a third term; this lead to civil unrest and now rebel forces are  in a violent campaign against Buruni government forces. The DRC has been sending reinforcements to back the Knurnziza regime defeat the rebel groups and prevent refugees from crossing over into the DRC.

Kabila’s desperate means to remain in power now threatens not just the DRC but the political stability of neighboring African states.