China and Russia’s Growing Space Capabilities Pose a Challenge for the United States

Despite a well-documented history of innovation, the U.S. is no longer the sole beneficiary of recent advancements in the space industry. China and Russia have committed extensive economic and political resources to their respective space programs in recent years.

A 2019 Defense Intelligence Agency report details actions taken by Russia and China in an effort to establish more control in space and reduce U.S. military dominance. These operations are significant because as history can attest, the technologically superior nation is often times the more powerful one if conflict arises. In the current space race, exploration and scientific innovation are underlined by strategic competition for military, civilian, and technological progress. The DIA report also states that space capabilities have also become central to many military operations, including missile warning, geolocation and navigation, target identification, and tracking of adversary activities.

A recent report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has highlighted and criticized Russian and Chinese pursuit of space warfare capabilities while maintaining that space must be a peaceful domain. Both countries have reorganized their militaries since 2015 by developing new technology like space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. While these improved systems allow for greater control of their forces worldwide and enhance situational awareness, they can also monitor, track and target U.S. and allied satellites.

A Wired article reported that in 2015, President Xi Jinping declared that space exploration would be an important growth point for their military. This statement was followed by the establishment of the Strategic Support Force (SSF) in the People’s Liberation Army, which brings together the military’s space, cyber, and electronic warfare capabilities – a structure unmatched in the west. Wired also reported that in 2018, Beijing invested $336 million in space companies, with the sector set to be worth $120 billion by 2020.

Both Russia and China hope to develop anti-satellite weapons in the near future, which would undermine U.S. military capabilities during a potential conflict. U.S. Intelligence Furthermore, the Defense Intelligence Agency report reveals that China and Russia, in particular, are developing a variety of ways to “exploit perceived U.S. reliance on space-based systems and challenge the U.S. position in space.”

The Trump administration has been proactive in this struggle for supremacy and in February responded with the creation of Space Force Department. With the signing of Space Policy Directive 4, the Trump administration seeks to eventually convert the new department into its own, sixth military branch designed to deter and counter threats in space. While the President does not have the power to form a new military branch, Trump has moved forward with the Pentagon and the National Space Council to get Congress to meet this goal by 2020.

With the threat of potential conflict with China and Russia, rapidly advancing space capabilities is something to monitor closely as warfare in the near future may be won or lost before a single bullet has been fired.