China busily catching up in nuclear arms race with US

Editor’s Note: This piece by J.M. Phelps features quotes from CSP Senior Fellow, Grant Newsham.

“The rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal—that American analysts now mostly agree on—reflects the broader, rapid growth of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) capabilities over the last 20 years,” says Col. (ret.) Grant Newsham.

Newsham, who served as the first Marine liaison officer to the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, has become a go-to source about China and its military ambitions. Now a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy, the retired Marine officer says China’s rapidly expanding arsenal is considered the “biggest, fastest military buildup of any country since World War II—if not in human history.”

China’s nuclear ambitions are now coming to light thanks to a new Pentagon report written for Congress.

For many years, Newsham says, the “expert consensus” of China’s nuclear warhead inventory was around 300. That estimate changed to 400-plus in 2021 and is now estimated at 500 city-destroying warheads.

“With that number doubling by 2030,” he warns.

Equally important, he says, the People’s Republic of China is increasing not only its quantity but also the effectiveness of nuclear delivery systems.

In a recent “Washington Watch” interview, Newsham said China’s lightning-fast military expansion is being ignored by many in Washington, D.C. That is because they don’t see China as a U.S. adversary, he said, but China’s communist leaders see the U.S. as an obstacle to dominating the globe.

Even the Chinese Communist Party, he says, has publicly stated it will have a “world-class” military by 2049, which is still a quarter-century away. That claim itself could be viewed as propaganda to assure Pentagon generals even though China has now surpassed the U.S. military in naval ships, for example.

“Just wait five or ten years and see how far they’ve gotten,” Newsham concludes. “Probably a lot farther than the ‘China experts’ imagine.”