China Seeks Stability in Afghanistan for Economic Benefit

As the Afghanistan peace talks continue to prove fruitless, China is beginning to consider a larger security role in the country. In March of this year China pledged to send “$70 million in military aid and proposed a four-nation security bloc including Pakistan and Tajikistan.” Along with the $70 million, China is set to donate $327 million to the Afghan government.

While China’s aid is much smaller than the United States, their increased support to Afghanistan shows their concern for the stability of the region. China recently invested $46 billion in Pakistan, and its increased aid to Afghanistan shows its desire to protect that investment by preventing unrest from continuing to spillover the border.

The Afghan peace talks, orchestrated by Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, and the U.S. have centered on the integration of the Taliban into the Afghan government. The Taliban refuses to sit in on these talks or share power with the current government. The Taliban have instead listed several preconditions to their arrival including all foreign troops leaving Afghanistan, the release of prisoners, and removing sanctions from Taliban leaders.

While the governments sponsoring talks hold out an apparently naïve hope that the Taliban will agree to peace, the Taliban has little reason to come to the negotiation table. Since last September the Taliban have been on the offensive, and now control over one-third of Helmand province, and continue to push towards the provincial capital of Lashkar Gah. The Afghan government is currently on the defensive, and the Taliban have little reason to make concessions.

In February, the U.S. announced it will begin to deploy hundreds of troops to the Helmand province to aid the fight against the Taliban, but it would not be increasing the overall troop levels in the country. At the moment, the U.S. force in Afghanistan sits at roughly 9,800 troops. President Obama has pushed for troop reductions in the past, but the current situation in Afghanistan has apparently forced him to reconsider.

Some in the Afghan government feel the current troop numbers may not be enough and the Afghan government is likely to need all the help it can get, as Reuters reports that the Taliban has announced the start of their annual Spring offensive. The Taliban have also reportedly seen senior members from the Islamic State’s (IS) defect to its ranks as well as Afghan military personnel.

While China is set to spend potentially billions of dollars in the future, it has already invested significant amounts of money in mines within Afghanistan. China has already invested heavily into the Anyak copper mine, which is located southeast of Kabul, and the Amu Darya oil field, which is situated in northern Afghanistan. Afghanistan is home to a plethora of rare earth elements (REE) that China may seek to invest in. It is reported that the undeveloped mineral resources within Afghanistan can be worth upwards of $1 trillion.

Outside of mining Afghanistan’s valuable resources, China has also set to reopen one of its most ancient trade networks. CNBC reported that China is “moving to revitalize the ancient Silk Road trade network,” running through the Middle East, parts of Africa, and Europe. Carnegie Middle East Center states China’s Silk Road Economic Belt strategy includes, “the construction of railways and highways to better connect Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East.”

The Silk Road is not just intended to bring trade to other nations, however. The Silk Road is predominantly intended to give Chinese companies the opportunities to seek lucrative contracts abroad. The Silk Road will allow China to lower the cost of shipping while also accessing key markets around the world. By doing this, China is lowering the influence and economic opportunity the West has around the world.

China’s interest in creating a stable Afghanistan is so they may mine its REE’s and establish an efficient Silk Road. The U.S. has stated its support behind China’s initiative, but aiding China’s strategic interests may come back to harm the U.S. Allowing China to establish this vast trade network will give the Chinese the ability to further its influence around the world, potentially to the detriment of the U.S.