China’s First Test For President Biden

Some analysts predicted Beijing would ‘test’ the Biden administration – and perhaps within three months of taking office.  It turns out it only took a few days.

Last Saturday and Sunday Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s southwestern air defense identification zone.

This isn’t the first time PLA aircraft have flown into the airspace between the south part of Taiwan and Taiwanese-controlled Pratas Islands in the South China Sea.   But the size and mix of the force are unusual.

Normally, such flights involve one to three reconnaissance or anti-submarine warfare (ASW) aircraft.   But on Saturday it was eight bombers, four fighters, and one ASW plane.

The next day the PLA sent a dozen fighters, two ASW planes, and a reconnaissance plane.  Taiwan’s air force scrambled in response on both days.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been increasingly using its air force and navy to probe and pressure Taiwan for years, but this is something more. 

It is fairly viewed as testing the new Biden administration.

The Americans (even the “new” team) might have been anticipating trouble.  There have been concerns that the PRC might use the disruption caused by a change of administration in Washington as “cover” for moving against Taiwanese territory.   And stepped up Chinese military training – including amphibious assault training – in the region in recent months added to the concerns.

So it’s unlikely the entry of the U.S. Navy’s USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group into the South China Sea over the weekend was a coincidence.

Following Saturday’s PLA overflights, the U.S. State Department issued a press release. That isn’t unusual, but the language was precise and blunt – intended to clearly state American support for Taiwan.  This was a press release with a difference.

The statement expressed concern over Chinese behavior, urged the PRC to stop intimidating its neighbors, including Taiwan, and affirmed that the United States will stand with its friends and allies.  It also declared Washington will deepen ties with Taiwan and maintain its “rock solid commitment” to Taiwan – to include helping maintain Taiwan’s self-defense capability.

A retired U.S. Government official with long China experience offered insights on the latest events:

“This suggests to me that there is, now….a very real crisis brewing in the Taiwan Strait that simply cannot wait for (newly appointed Secretary of State) Blinken and company to get settled-in and hold their first staff meetings.”

RETIRED U.S. DIPLOMAT

He added that he was… “somewhat heartened that the White House is taking Taiwan seriously, and is pledging continuity with important policies from the Trump administration.”

Further, “I can’t speak to the incoming Biden State Department’s grasp of nuance and the issuance of Departmental “Press Releases” as authoritative statements of official policy… but this can reasonably be assumed to be a warning to Beijing that the Biden Administration will continue the Trump Administration’s policies toward both Taiwan and China.”

“Normally, I’d assume the incoming Biden Administration hasn’t had time to give the State Department detailed oversight on specific Taiwan policies … (but) on the other hand, I don’t think the professional Foreign Service leadership at State would have issued this– what is, in effect, a full-throated endorsement of a signature policy from the hated Trump — without clear and explicit instructions from the White House.”

And there is more to the State Department message than meets the eye.  The former diplomat added:

“This Press Release’s invocation of the “Six Assurances” is a reminder to Beijing that the United States does NOT recognize the PRC’s claims of sovereignty over Taiwan.” [Note:  Assurance #5: “The United States has not changed its long-standing position on Taiwan’s sovereignty”]

FORMER U.S. DIPLOMAT