Communist Party’s upcoming Congress putting China on the path to war

Japan’s defense is changing, and bigger defense budgets and capability improvements are on the way. Exactly when this will occur is unclear, though Japan’s Prime Minister and other officials usually note, “within five years.”

By Japan standards this is lighting speed. However, the Chinese threat that has concentrated Japanese minds on national defense is perhaps coming at a much faster speed.

And once the 20^th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress takes place on October 16, a conflict in East Asia may arrive soon enough — and long before the contemplated improvements in Japanese defense capabilities. Japan may indeed find itself in the position of having to fight with what it has, not what it would like to have.

Why the Upcoming CCP Congress Matters

This is the first CCP Congress since Mao’s era that will solidify the position of a Chinese leader who can take China to war ー and who probably will do so if current trends remain as they are.

Put simply, this CCP Congress is putting China on the path to war. These gatherings are always “rubber stamp” sorts of affairs, but this one looks to set Xi Jinping in power indefinitely ー without any real restraints. His opposition is marginalized, if not thoroughly cowed or imprisoned.

The groundwork has been laid and the dirty work done. It’s not as if previous Chinese leaders have been nice guys, but Xi is the first one to combine the capability to go to war with the messianic desire to do so ー if he can’t get what he wants via intimidation. He sees himself as a man of destiny who will restore China to its rightful place in the world.

People’s Liberation Army (PLA) capabilities have developed to the point the Chinese Communist Party leadership (and Xi in particular) believe China can conduct a short, sharp war (or maybe even a long, sharp war) near its borders and succeed.

Taiwan is the most likely target, and such a war will not be a tidy four-day affair. The effects will be felt worldwide.

What a 3rd (or 4th) Term for Xi Means

China has spent the last 45 years or so developing economically and building up its military. It’s been recovering from the wretched Mao era.

But now Xi Jinping is likely to “roll the dice” and see what he can get by force and intimidation.

However, as noted, wars are unpredictable. And at minimum, besides taking heavy casualties, war would make China’s economy take a huge hit as its foreign trade shrinks. So will its access to essential foreign exchange, as China (and Chinese) become pariahs in the civilized world.

In China for the last 45 years there’s been a sense that things will keep improving. Those days may be coming to an end. Life is going to get much harder for most Chinese.

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