Continued Tunisia Protests Raise Questions for “Arab Spring” model

Protests have erupted in Tunisia this past week amid the growing unemployment rate due to the lack of available jobs. The protests began in the province of Kasserine, near the Algerian border, after a man was killed while climbing a telephone pole. Radha Yagyaoui, 28, was  taken off the shortlist for employment and began to protest in the streets only to be killed in the act Saturday the 16th.

Tunisia’s unemployment sits at 15% through 2015. While this number is lower than the 18% unemployment in 2011, pre-Arab Spring, it has increased from the past two years’ 13%. While the country average sits at 15%, there are some areas, including Kasserine, where rates are as high as 30%.

Protests have become increasingly violent as they have spread throughout the country. Police and security forces have been targeted in the protests, and last Thursday a police station was attacked by protestors. Due to the escalation in violence, the Tunisian government has imposed a nationwide curfew in hopes of quelling some of the destruction.

The situation worsened after Finance Minister Slim Shaker’s announced a plan to create 5,000 jobs in Kasserine only to have the government retract the claim, calling it a communication error. The finance ministry came out the next day to say they were planning to add 5,000 job training positions in a region that desperately wants jobs.

Tunisia’s 2011 revolution ousted President Zine el-Abedine Ben Ali, former dictator of Tunisia. While Tunisia has been considered one of the more stable Arab Spring counties, it has also faced repeated terror attacks against its economically important tourism industry, as well as political violence.

Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi has publicly claimed that there are “dirty hands” involved in the increased unrest in the country. President Essebsi claimed outside actors have been targeting protestors to join their cause. The President names The Islamic State (IS) and “others” as the main external actors working to target the unemployed.

While President Essebsi has not come out with any conclusive evidence that IS or other terrorist organizations have been involved, he is correct in believing they may benefit from the chaos. Terrorist activity has the ability to thrive in countries where political unrest is high. Terrorists can easily blend in to the population or cross borders more easily while governments are focused on internal disputes..

IS and other outside actors may not be the only ones to have an interest in the protests. The unrest with the current government could provide an opportunity for the Muslim Brotherhood’s Ennahda Party to reclaim control of the government. The Ennahda Party won control of the government after the 2011 revolution but was ousted from power following protests which claimed the party played a role in the assassination of secular left politicians.

While the Ennahda Party has condemned the most recent violent protests, their potential to regain power is not to be overlooked. They recently reacquired the majority of the seats in the Tunisian parliament after several members of the Nidaa Tounes Party, current Party of the President, defected.

The current protests have the potential to change much more in Tunisia than its economic policy. With terrorists on the borders and the possibility of Muslim Brotherhood affiliates controlling the government, Tunisia is far less than a beacon of hope for Arab democracy it has been portrayed as. If the Tunisian government fails to establish order it may come to resemble an increasingly ungovernable territory.