Controversial Nile Dam Project Raises African Security Concerns

On March 23^rd, leaders from Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan met in Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, to sign a deal over a controversial dam project on the River Nile. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Ethiopian Prime Minister Halemariam Desalegn, and Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir agreed to better share the river’s waters in light of the dam’s continuing construction.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a massive hydroelectric structure currently under construction on the Blue Nile River – one of the two Nile tributaries along with the White Nile – in Ethiopia. The project is now about 40 percent complete and has significant economic and security implications for all three aforementioned countries, all through which the river flows.

Egypt is almost completely dependent on the Nile, which flows upward, for farming, industry, and drinking water and is worried that the dam may cut the river’s water flow that sustains Egypt’s livelihood, thus giving Ethiopia significant control over Cairo’s national security. In fact, President Sisi’s predecessor, Mohamed Morsi, was so concerned about this project that he threatened war with Ethiopia over the potential endangerment of Egypt’s water supply.

Mr. Sisi, while equally worried about his country’s vulnerability, has been forced to take a more pacified approach because dam construction is already well underway. Furthermore, Cairo has few military options because the dam is far from Egyptian airfields, and Egypt does not have aerial refueling capabilities and cannot access Sudanese bases en route to the dam. Sisi has also reached out to several countries, including the United States, to pressure Ethiopia through diplomacy, but has gotten little help.

Ethiopia stands to greatly benefit from the dam, primarily for economic reasons. The east-African state has a high poverty rate where only 35 percent of the population has access to electricity, but domestic energy demand is greatly increasing. Additionally, Ethiopia is trying to attract more industry, especially low-end manufacturing, and sees the cheap, bountiful electricity that would come from the dam as a solution to these problems.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will reportedly provide 6,000 megawatts of power with additional projects adding around 2,000 megawatts, and Ethiopia plans to sell electricity to Kenya and other nearby states. Ethiopia’s other motivation is to replace a 1929 agreement signed by the United Kingdom that gave Egypt and Sudan – both British colonies at the time – use of about 90% of the Nile’s waters and Egypt veto power over any Nile project involving upstream countries.

Sudan is in a similar situation to Ethiopia, albeit not quite as strong of one, because it is an upstream country and not as vulnerable to river flow disruptions as Egypt; it is also better positioned than Cairo to control the water flow. In 2013, President al-Bashir said he supported the dam project. If Egypt and Ethiopia do come into conflict, however, then Sudan would be right in the middle of two belligerents.

Despite Egypt’s worry, the three countries have come to an agreement on the Nile, the details of which still need to be released. Cairo, knowing it has no good options to stop construction, is looking for assurances that Ethiopia will not disrupt the Nile’s flow of water. Prime Minister Halemariam has promised that there will be no harm to downstream countries and must have been persuasive enough for Sisi’s approval.

Despite this deal, Egypt’s security is potentially compromised while Ethiopia’s position is strengthened. With little international help, Egypt will have trouble effectively acting if Ethiopia violates this agreement in some manner, which is a definite possibility. Relations amongst these three countries will likely remain tense through 2017, when the dam is scheduled for completion.