Democratic rhetoric takes a perilous turn for the Jews

In an appearance this week on MSNBC, veteran Democratic political strategist James Carville made a stunning statement. Speaking of the uncommitted vote in Michigan, Carville said that it will be Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fault if Biden loses the election in November.

“There is a problem all across the country [with Democratic voters who will punish Biden if he continues to support Israel] and I hope that the President and [Secretary of State Antony] Blinken can get this thing calmed down, because if it don’t [sic.] get calmed down before the Democratic convention in Chicago it’s going to be a very ugly time in Chicago. I promise you that. They’re gonna have to tell Bibi Netanyahu, ‘Hey dude, we’re not gonna lose our election because you’re scared to go to jail.”

Carville’s bit about jail was part of a larger conspiracy theory that he has been peddling since shortly after the Hamas-led Palestinian invasion of southern Israel on Oct. 7. That theory has it that Netanyahu only decided to wage a war to eradicate Hamas to deflect public attention from his criminal trial. Beyond the obscenity of the contention itself, the fact is that since Netanyahu’s trial opened two years ago, the prosecution’s entire case has fallen apart. But the new wrinkle that Carville incorporated is that it will be Israel’s fault if Biden loses.

Carville is far from alone in making this claim. Pro-Hamas Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) is one of its most outspoken champions. Ahead of the Michigan primary last Tuesday, Tlaib led a campaign of pro-Hamas Muslims and progressives to convince like-minded Michiganders to vote “Uncommitted” to show their opposition to what they perceive as Biden’s support for Israel in its war against Hamas.

Others, including academics, have piled onto the bandwagon. For instance, New York University professor Mohamad Bazzi wrote in The Guardian last week that Biden is risking reelection by not reining in Netanyahu. In his words, “While Biden complains about the petulant Israeli leader who won’t listen, his presidency is now at risk. It’s a self-inflicted wound that Biden would have avoided by standing up to Netanyahu months ago.”

The allegation that Netanyahu is going to cost Biden the election because of his unwillingness to end the war with Hamas without victory is absurd for three reasons. First, the Michigan primary showed the emptiness of the threat. For more than a month, the media provided around-the-clock coverage of calls by Tlaib and her Hamas-supporting partners for Muslims and progressives in Michigan to vote “Uncommitted.” But in the end, Biden won 81.1% of the vote and only 13.2% of Michigan voters voted “uncommitted.”

While 13.2% is being presented as a major achievement, it is anything but significant. It isn’t clear what portion of the 13.2% voted “Uncommitted” out of support for Hamas, for one thing. Around the same percentage of primary voters regularly vote “Uncommitted” in Democratic presidential primaries. For instance, when then-President Barack Obama was running unopposed for re-election in 2012, 11% of Michigan primary voters voted “Uncommitted.”

Beyond that, the Harvard-Harris poll of U.S. opinion on Israel’s war with Hamas, which was published the day of the primary, showed that 82% of Americans support Israel compared to 18% who support Hamas. The implications are clear. Both the election results and the Harvard-Harris poll demonstrated that Tlaib and her pro-Hamas supporters do not have the political weight to throw a presidential election.

The claim that support for Israel will cost Biden the election is also fatuous because Tlaib and her supporters are bluffing. Donald Trump was the most pro-Israel president in history, and they know it. They will not enable him to return by refusing to support Biden. Tlaib admitted this herself at a press conference on Thursday.

“It’s really important for folks to understand: I am incredibly, incredibly scared of a second term for Trump. And I think it’s really important to emphasize this,” she said.