Does North Korea’s Nuclear Progress Undermine the US’s Nuclear Deterrence Strategy?

On May 20th, the North Korean military announced:

“We have had the capability of miniaturizing nuclear warheads, as well as producing multiform weapons, for some time…We can also guarantee the accuracy not only of short-to-mid-range but also long-range rocket launches, for which we have had the technology for a long time.”

This newly announced progress is a major stepping stone for North Korea in terms of building nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. US intelligence has suggested previously that Kim Jong Un was developing the technology to miniaturize warheads, however until now the extent of that progress was unknown. A spokesman for the US National Security Council indicated that they do not consider the new North Korean claims credible, but sources within NORAD recently indicated that North Korea is believed to have the ability to successful launch a missile at the continental US.

This progress, if accurate, conveys yet again the combative foreign policy for North Korea, despite deterrence efforts for the US and South Korea. In addition to the new statements, Kim Jung Un recently executed North Korea’s defense chief, as Un solidifies his grip over North Korea.

The sanction placed on North Korea have long been part of the United State’s deterrence strategy against the Hermit Kingdom’s nuclear program. Recent reports of North Korea’s prospering economy suggests that US sanctions are not as effective as many are led to believe.

Nonetheless, the effect of sanctions, combined with North Korea’s disastrous centrally controlled economy has resulted in the bankruptcy of its civilian economy even as North Korea continues its the nuclear and military programs.

In 2013, the US and South Korea signed a defense agreement to increase their deterrence against the North, laying out a plan for a preemptive strike if intelligence ever indicated North Korea was on the verge of launching a nuclear attack. But the effectiveness of deterrence as a strategy, particularly in the case of a potentially irrational actor, such as Kim Jong Un is questionable. Thus because of the ineffectiveness of sanctions, and likely failure of deterrence, we can expect North Korea to continue to move forward with enhancing its nuclear capabilities.