Don’t Hold Out Hope For Libyan Negotiations

Negotiations on forming a national unity government in Libya have not gone well, which should be of surprise to no one. Yet the United States and European Union remain committed to attempting to force the secularist Libyan government (currently in exile in Tobruk) to work with the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Libyan Dawn/General National Congress. The European Union recently issued a warning against any faction in Libya attempting to undermine unity talks. The Tobruk government in turn believes that the solution is a military not political one, calling for help with the defeat of the Islamist militias it accuses Western countries of effectively supporting. On March 15th, 2015, Libyan Information Minister Omar al-Qweri told Al Monitor:

The problem in Libya is not political; rather it is a security problem. As long as the militias continue to raise arms against the state — with the presence of political parties that want to use and exploit these militias to gain seats and posts — we cannot envision the success of a political solution. We must disarm the militias and fight against terrorism first.

Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are already backing the internationally recognized Tobruk government as having a Muslim Brotherhood backed legitimate government in North Africa would be a disaster. However, Turkey and Qatar are backing Libyan Dawn. With such foreign backers aiding both factions, conflict is almost guaranteed to be long and drawn out.

Islamic State’s presence in Sirte is also of concern, and as the conflict and disorder in Libya intensifies it is likely that Islamic State could take advantage of the fighting between the two major factions. Several Libyan Islamist groups have already sworn allegiance to Islamic State and have carried out attacks such as the infamous beheadings of Coptic Christians and the Corinthia Hotel attack.

The European Union has a vested interest in bringing the conflict in Libya to a swift end. As mentioned before, Libya is a prime area for sending Islamic State terrorists and arms to Italy or other Mediterranean states, and the outflow of refugees from the embattled country puts strain on hosting countries. But more importantly is what led to this situation. The West’s failed policy of supporting “democratic” Islamist “Arab Spring” governments has destabilized North Africa and allowed for organizations such as Islamic State and the Muslim Brotherhood to co-opt the revolutions and create home bases for Islamic terror organizations.