Enriching China Unlikely to Advance U.S. National Security

(Washington, D.C.): In recent days, President Bill Clinton and his National Security Advisor, Samuel Berger, have asserted that U.S. national security requires that China receive Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. The stridency with which they have adopted this line suggests that — despite the favorable “spin” proponents of PNTR are giving their prospects for success when the House of Representatives votes on that legislation on or about 22 May — they are having trouble overcoming skepticism concerning claims that the American economy will benefit greatly from China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). Unfortunately for the White House and its business and other allies, it is unlikely that a dangerous China will become less so if it has even more resources at the disposal of its military-industrial and security services.

To the contrary, past and present Chinese behavior — notably the following activities — strongly suggests that Chinese hardliners are exercising full control over the regime. They will likely redouble these and other efforts if they are, in effect, rewarded for them by being spared yearly NTR reviews.

A Bill of Particulars

China’s Long-term Strategy seeks to dominate Asia and become a global superpower. It is pursuing these goals with patience and determination. The People’s Liberation Army sees the United States as “the main enemy” and the only impediment to accomplishing this goal.

This strategy was brilliantly dissected recently by Mark Helprin in a recent edition of National Review entitled “East Wind.” Of particular note is Helprin’s discussion of the vital role that economic expansion plays in this strategy as summarized in Deng Xio Peng’s “16 Character” diktat which calls on the Chinese people to “Combine the military and civil; combine peace and war; give priority to military products; let the civil support the military.” No one should be under any illusion: Beijing envisions using its economic expansion to fuel its military buildup and expansionist ambitions.

• Penetration by PLA- and Chinese government-affiliated entities of our capital markets: The problem posed by China’s economic program is not limited to trade. China is, among other things, making an increasingly aggressive bid to penetrate the U.S. capital markets — one of this Nation’s last great monopolies.

  As incredible — not to say absurd — as it may seem, U.S. pension funds, mutual funds, life insurance, corporate and private portfolios are all seen as sources of cash with which China can put our interests at risk. A case in point is an Initial Public Offering issued by PetroChina, a subsidiary of the PRC’s largest energy company — an entity providing resources that are allowing Sudan’s government to engage in activities from genocide to slave-trading to support for terrorism and the proliferation of weapons mass destruction. For companies like PetroChina, other state-owned and -affiliated “bad actors,” the vast resources of the U.S. debt and equity markets represent “found money” — funds that are undisciplined and largely non-transparent. It must be asked: To what uses will they be put?

• China’s Military Modernization Program: A principal beneficiary of course is China’s military, which aspires to make what Mao once described as a “Great Leap Forward.” The PRC’s long-term strategy calls for the People’s Liberation Army to achieve a massive modernization program capable of transforming its 1950s and ’60s vintage equipment and tactics into those at the forefront of the 21st Century. In the hope of accomplishing this enormous task as rapidly and as inexpensively as possible, Beijing is taking maximum advantage of technology acquired legally or illegally from us, as well as through a growing strategic axis with Russia.

  Of particular concern is the emphasis being placed by the People’s Liberation Army on a doctrine that envisions using asymmetric means and technologies to counter American military power. Thus we see China pursuing: Information Warfare; weapons of mass destruction and long-range ballistic missiles; advanced nuclear-armed anti-ship missile systems from Russia designed to destroy American carrier battle groups; electro-magnetic pulse weapons; etc., rather than concentrating (for now at least) on building up conventional forces comparable to our own.

• The PRC’s Regional Agenda: The Chinese are assiduously dividing and intimidating U.S. allies in the region — Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea. They are doing this in a variety of ways, for example, by abetting North Korean belligerence and Pyongyang’s long-range ballistic missile program, as well as by brandishing their own ability to attack even American cities like Los Angeles with nuclear weapons.

  This campaign is designed to impress upon our democratic allies that the United States is a declining and unreliable power and China a rising one in the Western Pacific and East Asia. In the absence of credible American security guarantees, China is running what amounts to a protection racket, impressing upon our friends that Beijing’s help will be needed to counter North Korean and other regional threats.

  The Chinese military is also exhibiting increasing assertiveness around the Pacific Rim and Asia — from Pakistan, to Myanmar, to Malaysia, to Taiwan and the Philippines. It is actively establishing bases, intelligence collection facilities and other dominant positions from which to project power.

• China’s espionage: The former long-time chief of the FBI’s Chinese counter-intelligence unit, Paul Moore’s made the point in a powerful op.ed. article in the New York Times last August that the PRC is pursuing a comprehensive, patient and deadly approach to intelligence collection against this country. In so doing, he notes, Beijing appeals to and/or coerces overseas Chinese to help in that effort.

  Mr. Moore explained in his essay that such practices make it very difficult to catch, let alone to prosecute successfully someone like Wen Ho Lee, suspected of spying at Los Alamos. Such individuals generally are not doing it for the money, fancy cars or bigger houses. They may not even be aware of exactly what they are doing. This makes for a huge — and possibly insoluble — counter-intelligence challenge.

• China’s penetration of our hemisphere: This problem has been much in the news lately, from Long Beach and Palmdale here in California to strategic bases at either end of the Panama Canal. There are estimated to be several thousand front companies working for the People’s Liberation Army and/or Chinese intelligence services in this country. The Chinese are also actively engaged in drug, alien and arms smuggling into the US. They are also actively insinuating themselves in an ominous fashion into other parts of the Western hemisphere including: Ecuador, Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico and Cuba.
• Chinese proliferation: The PRC is the leading exporter of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile technology to dangerous developing nations — nations they see not as we do, as “rogue states” but as clients. Indeed, Beijing sees such trade as more than simply a means of securing vital energy resources from oil-rich countries like Libya, Iraq, Iran and Sudan.

  The Chinese also understand that, by building up the offensive power of these states, as well as that of Cuba and North Korea, their clients can help buy the PRC freedom of maneuver by distracting, tying up and otherwise stressing the world’s one global power, the United States. Proliferation can also prove helpful in increasing pressure on America’s democratic and other allies to seek China’s influence and protection. Israel’s sale of powerful early warning aircraft and other advanced weapons technology is a case in point.

  PRC efforts to increase the forces of instability around the world has even had the effect of augmenting China’s leverage on the United States as we seek its help in controlling such threats.

• China’s penetration of our political system: Last, but hardly least, there is the matter of illegal Chinese campaign contributions to the Clinton-Gore campaigns. Is it a coincidence or is it cause and effect that Clinton has made momentous changes in granting China access to satellite and missile technology, supercomputers, embraced Beijing’s position on Taiwan, largely ignored the PRC’s violations of human rights (recently it failed to secure votes in Geneva for resolution condemning China’s record), given China access to the WTO, etc.?

  Such behavior on the part of China is all the more worrisome because it comes against the backdrop of significant internal unrest in China. Will Beijing engage in what the political scientists call “social engineering” — using phony claims of “external aggression” as a pretext for imposing greater control at home and diverting public anger from a failed government to foreign “barbarians”? Will China actually accelerate its timetable for using force against Taiwan, leading to conflict with the United States?

The Bottom Line

It is unlikely that the American economy as a whole will, on balance, benefit from granting China Permanent Normal Trade Status. There is, however, no chance that a China engaged in such an ominous array of malevolent activities while it is, at least nominally, subject to close annual scrutiny as part of the Normal Trade Status review process will become less of a threat to U.S. national security once that leverage no longer exists. Representations to the contrary are cynical, reckless and a disservice to the very important debate about PNTR now taking shape.