It has been nearly 15 years since the Chinese started moving in on Japan’s Senkaku Islands. Chinese pressure is indeed troublesome, but for now, it’s manageable – even if the Japan Coast Guard and Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) are overstretched.
The Japanese have patiently dealt with near-daily aggression and pressure from Chinese naval, coast guard, maritime militia, and fishing vessels as well as regular aerial intrusions into Japanese territory.
The PRC would like nothing more than for the Japanese to fire ー even just one shot. Beijing would then claim they were provoked into “defending” themselves. Japan has not taken the bait, however.
Things have not blown up.
But it’s best not to assume this state of affairs will continue in the same mode for another 15 years. Or 15 months, or even 15 days.
What is the likelihood that this somewhat manageable Chinese grey zone activity escalates into something worse?
The likelihood is high. And it is up to the Chinese.
The escalation move might be either “flooding the zone” tactics or actual shooting. Although the former could of course lead to the latter.
For now, however, the “kinetic” option is less likely, unless it’s in conjunction with an attack on Taiwan.
More likely, China will keep increasing the pressure – with more ships, boats, and aircraft in more places and more often around the Senkakus. For now, the People’s Republic of China is aiming to reach a point where it simply absorbs the Senkakus by “osmosis.”
The Chinese have “flooded the zone” before with dozens or more fishing boats – backed by the Chinese Coast Guard. And with the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) on-call.
These were warnings to Tokyo that it can do it again – with even more boats – anytime it wants.
At some point – and in the not-so-distant future – when China decides the “time is right” the Japanese defenders could be overwhelmed.
And at that point, Japan will have some hard choices to make. By itself, it will have a very hard time rolling back the Chinese.
Japan is counting on American support.
Will the Americans pitch in over the Senkakus?
They have said they would.
It is now well understood that Washington considers the Senkakus to fall under the Japan-US Security Treaty. United States officials have made this clear repeatedly since the Obama administration.
The Japan-US Security treaty language says that the treaty – and America’s obligation to defend Japan – applies to areas under Japan’s “administrative control.” That includes the Senkakus – which the US considers under Japanese administrative control – even if Washington takes no position on actual ownership.
Remember that in the aforementioned Chinese strategy “flooding the zone” aims to put such a large number of ships around the Senkakus that they can make a move – to include landing people on the Senkakus – and claim they (not the Japanese) have “administrative control.”
The US needs to make a firm decision – immediately – that the Senkakus are Japanese territory. And not merely under “administrative control.”
This split-the-difference approach simply encourages the PRC to think it can get its way if it creates “realities on the ground” and elbows the Japanese out of the way.
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