Examining think tank proposal that US cut and run in Asia-Pacific

A recent report put out by a relatively obscure Washington think tank, Defense Priorities, is getting an unusual amount of attention.

In simple terms, the report written by the shop’s military analysis director Jennifer Kavanagh and entitled “A Second Island Chain Strategy for Asia” looks at current US security policy in the Asia-Pacific region and calls for doing the opposite.

DC think tanks put out reports all the time. Very few get the amplification seen with this one. With all of the attention, it has triggered deep confusion – and, in some cases, concern – across the region.

So, it’s worth answering some of the questions the report has raised and see if its assertions stand up to scrutiny.

The report says that moving troops from the first island chain to the second island chain and ending any strategic ambiguity over a defense commitment to Taiwan would reduce risk of war with China. How might China view this move, and what might the Chinese reaction to such a move possibly be?

When setting defense strategy at any level – from strategic to tactical – it’s good to ask

• “What would my enemy think about this?”
• “What would he least/most want me to do?”

The Defense Priorities report’s call for ending US alliances, pulling back to the so-called Second Island Chain, effectively declaring that the US will not defend Taiwan (by stating a ‘non-intervention policy) and eventually pulling most US forces out of the region entirely could have been drafted by the PRC.

For People’s Liberation Army planners, it’s a wishlist.

In short order we would see full-bore Chinese political warfare amplifying the idea that “the Americans are unreliable, in retreat, and leaving you Asia-Pacific nations on your own. So you had better submit – and now, since we won’t be so nice later on.”

To signal this, the PLA  (navy and air force in particular) would be out and about in more places, more often and asserting presence and dominance – to include violence and kinetic moves.

China has always been very clear about its intentions. Recall a Chinese officer telling Admiral Timothy Keating (then US PACOM commander) in 2008:  “why don’t we reach an agreement, you and I? You take Hawaii east. We’ll take Hawaii west.”

Read more HERE.