Excerpts of REMARKS BY FRANK J. GAFFNEY, JR. before THE CATO INSTITUTE: ‘THE GATHERING STORM’ REDUX

The regrettable truth about the current moment in
international affairs is that we are unlikely to
experience anytime soon the sort of stability — albeit
an armed and, to varying degrees, dangerous one — that
characterized the Cold War conflict with the Soviet
Union. I anticipate increasing difficulties from Moscow,
some of which may be reminiscent of the challenges the
Kremlin posed to the West during the period Churchill
dubbed the “Twilight Struggle.”

Still, the troubling developments in the former USSR
are but one heavy weather system building up in what
might be called, to borrow another Churchillism, our
generation’s “Gathering Storm.” Indeed, I fear
that we live today in a period fully as portentous as
that prior to the Second World War. Unfortunately, too
many in this country — as in the time of Churchill’s
“Gathering Storm” — misperceive the present
period of relative quiescence in international affairs as
a permanent state of affairs, one in which the United
States can safely and dramatically reduce its military
might and overseas presence.

I believe that what we are experiencing is the lull
before the storm: A period of world history that is
marked by highly dynamic and violent forces whose
inter-relationship and repercussions can only be guessed
at this juncture. If we have the wit to recognize them
for what they are (as Churchill did in his day) and act
appropriately (as the Western powers declined to do in
the late 1930s), we may still be able to influence the
course of this storm and mitigate somewhat its impact on
us and our vital interests around the world.

I will address four “weather patterns” on
the international horizon that bear considerable
watching: Russia, China, Korea and Iran. I will say a few
words about each — and then try to give you a sense of how
these atmospheric conditions are likely to interact with
one another in the days ahead.

Russia: The Siberian Cold Front

First, as any Canadian can tell you, Russia — not
our neighbor to the North — is responsible for arctic
cold fronts. Russia is likely to prove to be — to
paraphrase good old Saddam Hussein — the mother of
all geopolitical weather systems for the foreseeable
future.

Among the storm clouds on the Russian horizon are the
following:

• The emergence of an informal red-brown coalition
  of Communists and nationalists whose policies —
  both domestic and foreign — are inimical to U.S.
  and Western interests.
• An ongoing strategic force modernization program
  involving advanced land- and sea-based missiles
  and new launch platforms. Such Kremlin
  initiatives, coupled with its retention of at
  least 9,000 strategic and 18,000 theater nuclear
  weapons — unfortunately under ever more
  uncertain control — bespeak a persistent desire
  to threaten the U.S. and its allies.
• No less disturbing is the fact that Moscow
  reportedly is conducting its intelligence
  collection activities against the United States
  at unprecedented levels of intensity. The renamed
  KGB is also closely collaborating with the mafia
  organizations inside Russia, in Eastern Europe
  and, almost certainly, in the United States, as
  well. It is also training the security services
  of client states like Iran.
• Moscow’s policies towards Bosnia and the eastward
  enlargement of NATO are indicative of the sorts
  of serious conflicts of interests to be
  increasingly expected in the future.

I am often reminded of the statements that have
frequently been made to the effect that the U.S. would
have years of warning if Russia were ever to revert to
form and pose a Cold War-style threat. To be sure, the
present condition and physical disposition of much of the
Russian military bears little resemblance to that of the
Soviet era. Still, the relevant question is whether what
we see today approximates the sorts of indicators that
one would expect to see during the first year or two of
“warning” the West supposedly would have.

China and Korea: The Pacific Tidal Waves

Unfortunately, a similar litany could be offered for
China. Beijing’s booming economy and vast trade surplus
are making possible an immense military build-up. China
is also engaged in aggressive muscle-flexing in the
Spratleys, bellicosity towards Taiwan and intimidation of
Hong Kong. No less troubling is the role China is playing
in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and
ballistic missiles. Advanced Western technology transfers
are not only facilitating China’s efforts to emerge as
the world’s next superpower. They are also proving to be
hard currency-earning opportunities with nuclear wannabes
like Iran and North Korea.

The Clinton Administration’s decision to reward North
Korea for having “gone nuclear” by cobbling
together a $4 billion-plus investment in Pyongyang’s
nuclear reactor program has already begun to have very
undesirable repercussions. First, it has emboldened the
North Koreans to believe that they can continue to extort
more and more concessions — diplomatic, political and
financial — from the United States. And second, it has
given the Russians and Chinese a perfect excuse to
proceed with their respective nuclear
“cooperation” programs with Iran.

I anticipate that this North Korean initiative will
have at least two other adverse repercussions: 1) It will
compel Japan, South Korea and perhaps others in the
region to “go nuclear” — setting off a
regional arms race that will exacerbate instability in
this strategic part of the world already heightened by
the perceived collapse of U.S. power and military
engagement in the Asian Pacific; 2) North Korea’s success
will also assure that pariah nations in the Middle East
and elsewhere will have an option for one-stop-shopping
for nuclear weapons technology — as well as for the
long-range delivery systems for them that nations like
Iran, Syria and Libya are already buying from Pyongyang.

Iran: Blinding Desert Sand Squalls

Of these nations, the most worrisome is clearly Iran.
Iran is engaged simultaneously in a massive offensive
military build-up — including Backfire bombers, advanced
fighter aircraft and tanks, and diesel submarines from
Russia as well as modern ballistic missiles from North
Korea — at the same time that its holy war or
“jihad” against the West in general and its
outpost in the Middle East, Israel, in particular.

My guess is that the West is going to face a
confrontation with Iran in the near- to medium- term, a
probability that can only be increased as Iran succeeds
in accruing a substantial arsenal of weaponry of mass
destruction and the means to deliver them throughout the
Middle East, and perhaps beyond.

Conclusion: Storm Warnings Are In Effect

As with dangerous weather patterns in nature, the
United States may not be able to prevent these strategic
developments from converging in a new, “gathering
storm.” Still, there are clearly things that the
United States can — and should — do, if not to
dissipate these storm clouds, then at least to protect
its interests against their destructive potential.

The following are hardly all inclusive but
illustrative of those steps:

• Stop the free fall in U.S. military readiness and
  power projection capability. It is not enough “not
  to cut any further”; under present and
  prospective circumstances, increased
  spending is going to be required in defense for
  some time to come. In particular, it is
  recklessly irresponsible not to be building on an
  urgent basis a global defense against missile
  attack.
• Stop the insane export of sophisticated dual-use
  technologies that are going to fuel the raging
  fires of proliferation of weapons of mass
  destruction and other threats (notably to China
  and Russia).
• Stop encouraging the weakening of actual or
  potential allies — e.g., Israel and the West
  Bank, Golan; Ukraine and nuclear weapons; leaving
  Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary out of NATO.

Such steps are made all the more necessary by virtue
of the fact that unlike the capabilities the United
States could rely upon to fight the Cold War, many of the
institutions and resources that constituted those
capabilities have since been dismantled or mortally
weakened. As a result, if today’s “gathering
storm” proves to be as dangerous as the Cold War, if
not more so, the U.S. will be even more vulnerable than
in the past.