Hezbollah’s expansion since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War

On March 11^th sources from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) revealed that the IRGC had established weapons factories in Lebanon to be run by Hezbollah. The IRGC handed over the facilities to the Islamic terrorist organization giving them the ability to manufacture their own weapons decreasing their dependence on imports.

Hezbollah’s domestic arm’s industry is part of a larger expansion that the group has undergone since the beginning of Syria’s Civil War in 2011. They joined the civil war in 2011 as part of the “axis of resistance,” an anti-American/Israeli alliance whose members also include Iran and Syria, to preserve the Assad regime and defend their arms supply routes from Iran.

Their involvement in the conflict grew from sending fighters to back-up the pro-Assad forces into leading a pro-regime Shia foreign legion of between 15,000 and 25,000 fighters.

Hezbollah has been present in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003 when under Iranian orders they founded the Unit 2800 to train and equip Shia militias in the country. With the appearance of Islamic State in Iraq in 2014 the newly renamed Unit 3800 joined the Shia militias and the IRGC in their fight against IS.

According to Hussein Yazadan, a Kurdish military official, Hezbollah has deployed 1,000 fighters to support Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and help them consolidate Iran’s hold over the oil-rich cities of Kirkuk and Mosul.

Hezbollah has also been engaged in an escalating conflict with Israel. In late 2016 the IDF conducted a series of surface-to-surface missile strikes against Hezbollah facilities and leaders through Syria. So far the group has not counterattacked, possibly because it is stretched thin in Syria and Iraq.

To help Hezbollah fight Israel and strengthen its position in Syria the IRGC established the Golan Liberation Brigade (GLB). The GLB is part of Harakat al Nujaba, an Iraqi Shia militia under the control of Iran.

The cooperation between the two groups and the area’s proximity to Lebanon could mean that Hezbollah will supply the GLB with arms from their new weapon’s factories. Shipping arms from Lebanon to Golan Heights would be easier than sending them via Iraq and Syria.

According to the IRGC source among the weapons produced in Hezbollah’s new factories are drones.

Hezbollah has already been using drones to bomb Syrian rebels the group may use the same techniques on Israel. In 2016 Hezbollah was able to fly a drone into Israel and the country’s air defenses failed to down it, a worrisome development if Hezbollah considers putting into practice techniques learned in Syria against Israel.

Faster weapon supply lines and support from the Golan Liberation Brigade will increase pressure on the Syrian rebels in Golan Heights, which could lead to their defeat in the region. This would strengthen Iran’s grip in Syria and allow the Shia militias to turn the area into a staging ground of attacks against Israel.

Should Hezbollah and the GLB start flying drones into Israel, or take other offensive action, Israel is increasingly likely to feel the need to respond military to blunt Hezbollah’s capability. The IDF has previously conducted raids against the Syrian army and Hezbollah have mostly been concentrated around Damascus, but some jets have gone as far as Palmyra.

Besides military instillations these bombings targeted convoys supplying arms for Hezbollah, which Israel has indicated it reserves the right to target because they posed a danger to its nationals security. Now the IDF air raids on southern Syria will likely increase as Israel could target GLB and Hezbollah positions in the Golan Heights as well as their arms supply routes in order to prevent the groups from launching attacks on them from the area.