Hotel Attack Shows Defections Having Little Effect on Al Shabaab

This past Thursday, January 21, 2016, the Beach View Hotel in Mogadishu was attacked by al Shabaab, an al Qaeda affiliated group based in southern Somalia. Al Shabaab fighters initiated the attack by detonating a truck bomb outside the hotel gates in order to allow for gunmen to storm the hotel. The attack resulted in 20 people killed and another 13 wounded.

It was also reported that the fighters targeted the Lido Seafood Restaurant soon after their assault on the hotel.

The Beach View Hotel was just one of many Mogadishu hotels that have been targeted by al Shabaab, and the most recent attack continued to follow Al Shabaab’s preferred tactics.

On March 30, 2015 the organization attacked the Maku-Mukarramah hotel which killed 21 people. The hotel was filled with government officials, and the Somali ambassador to Switzerland was one of the casualties.

On July 26, 2015 the Jazeera hotel was attacked. An al Shabaab member drove a car laced with explosives into the hotel killing 13 and wounding another 40. The Jazeera was a prime target for al Shabaab because it is frequently attended by foreign diplomats.

This past November al Shabaab continued its attacks against Mogadishu when it drove two car bombs into the Sahafi hotel. 15 were killed in the attack, and one of the victims was a general who led the expulsion of al Shabaab from Mogadishu in 2011.

The Somali capital continues to be a primary target for Al Shabaab. When the Somali government attempted to hold a political conference to discuss a new constitution for a new state in central Somalia, al Shabaab attempted to set off a car bomb outside the building. The plan was foiled before it came to fruition, and no one was harmed.

On July 25, 2015 two members of the Somali parliament were killed in a drive-by shooting.

Al Shabaab seeks to establish an Islamic regime within Somalia. The group was initially attached to the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which ruled Somalia under shariah law. The ICU was defeated by the Transitional Federal Government, the Ethiopian backed Somali government. In 2006, al Shabaab launched its insurgency against the government.

Al Shabaab has been able to gain territory in Central and Southern Somalia this past year. The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) has been finding it difficult to combat Al Shabaab when some of its members are preoccupied with internal conflicts. Al Shabaab has taken over several towns and AMISOM bases in the past year, and its ability to conduct warfare against the Somali government has been growing by the month.

Al Shabaab’s decentralized structure makes targeted killings, the preferred U.S. response, virtually meaningless in the long run.

Al Shabaab relies on different clans and cells to work together to achieve their goals. The limitations of drone strikes are evident considering last year numerous leaders in al Shabaab were killed and yet the group remains capable and motivated to engage in continued attacks in Mogadishu and on Somalia as a whole.

The recent high level attacks from al Shabaab come at a time when their ability to maintain unity is being questioned. Al Shabaab is facing defections from younger members who seek to join the Islamic State (IS). Yet even with these defections the group remains dangerous to Somalia and its surrounding countries.

These defections could pose greater internal problems to al Shabaab, particularly given what’s described as an “iron-fisted” approach to dissent. A source close to CNN told the news network some followers believe their leader, Ahmad Umar, is using the defections as a pretext to eliminate those who have spoken out against the Al Shabaab leadership.

While this internal division could be looked at as an opportunity to break up the organization, Al Shabaab has been facing internal divisions for years. Even if it were to break up into pro-Al Qaeda and pro-Islamic State factions, it’s unlikely to negatively impact levels of jihadist violence against the Somali government and its AMISOM allies.