In Al Shabaab Old Relationships May Prevent New Allegiance, For A Time
On April 1, 2015, Zakariya Hersi, a former al-Shabaab intelligence official claimed that al-Shabaab’s relationship with al-Qaeda is disintegrating. In his own words, al-Shabaab “basically” no longer has relations with al-Qaeda. According to him, with the relationship falling apart, there is a chance that al-Shabaab will pledge allegiance to the Islamic State. He states that the lack of relations between the two organizations were revealed last year when Ahmed Abdi Godane was killed.
The relationship between al-Qaeda and al-Shabaab comes down to a personal level. The current and past leaders of al-Shabaab have had strong ties to al-Qaeda leadership. Godane, the previous leader of al-Shabaab, officially declared allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2012, and maintained a strong relationship with Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current al-Qaeda leader. After Godane was killed by an air strike in September of 2014, Ahmad Umar took over and used that time to re-affirm allegiance to al-Qaeda. Umar, a member of the same clan as Godane, became an officer in the Islamic Courts Union before eventually becoming Godane’s assistant.
While the personal relationships may be strong between the leaders of al-Shabaab and the leaders of al-Qaeda, there is some unrest between the younger fighters in al-Shabaab and the older generations. Some of fighters are already questioning whether to split and go join the Islamic State individually. There is a divide between the older generation leaders with personal relationships and younger fighters who are beginning to question their allegiance. Ironically, al-Shabaab literally translates to “the Youth”.
Ultimately, it comes down to two main questions: How many al-Shabaab leaders are left that have personal relationships with al-Qaeda leadership and whether or not a majority of the al-Shabaab fighters deem that the Islamic State caliphate is legitimate?
While personal relationships may impact allegiance, decision making must take place within the context of ideology. Religious doctrine is the underlying uniting factor. When Boko Haram, who had previously pledged fealty with al-Qaeda, decided to swear loyalty to Al Baghdadi, it required the approval from the group’s Shura council, who made a decision grounded in Shariah law regarding Islamic State’s legitimacy.
The U.S. has been continuing their strategy at targeting high-ranking individuals within al-Shabaab. Since September 2014, US forces have killed at least four senior al-Shabaab officials, and since December 2014 three officials in the Amniyat, the intelligence division used to instill fear and loyalty in the al-Shabaab ranks . As the US continues to take down al-Shabaab leaders, the likelihood of personal ties with al-Qaeda will diminish, and there will be less and less keeping al-Shabaab from the Caliphate.
