Iraq Plans to Retake Anbar

On May 26, Iraq announced the beginning of a large military operation against the Islamic State to retake Anbar, a province in western Iraq where Ramadi, the provincial capital, fell last week.

ISIS has had control over parts of Anbar since early 2014. Iraqi security forces and militias that have been fighting it for months were unable to defeat its fighters in Ramadi, who gained both new territory 70 miles west of Baghdad and abandoned weapons when state forces fled on May 17. The fall of Ramadi was a setback for US-supported Iraqi troops, augmented by militias, who have been regaining territory from ISIS in other parts of the country.

The Shia Iraqi government will rely heavily on Iranian-backed Shia militias for this operation, while also utilizing Sunni pro-government fighters. The government forces will surround Ramadi from the northeast, attempting to cut off ISIS supply routes and recapture its surrounding area before invading the city itself. On Tuesday, the Shia militias were able to advance within a few kilometers of a university on the southwestern edge of Ramadi with government assistance, though the militia members outnumbered the official troops.

Although the operation relies on both Shiite and Sunni paramilitary forces, the Shia militias have dubbed the offensive “Labaik ya Hussein” after a grandson of the Prophet Mohammed who was killed in a 7^th century battle that contributed to the split between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. The Iraqi government’s heavy reliance on Shia militias risks alienating its Sunni residents who comprise 32-37% of the total Iraqi population. (In comparison, Shia Muslims make up 60-65% of the total populace). Anbar is predominately Sunni, presenting a great logistical challenge to Iraq’s government forces, which must not only fight ISIS but must also convince Anbar’s population that it is safer with the Shiite government than with Sunni ISIS.

As Shia militias have moved through the countryside, they have told people to stay inside their homes to not be hurt. However, the United Nations has expressed concern over reports of Ramadi residents trying to flee their homes but being turned back at police checkpoints. Anbar has a history of sectarian violence coupled with an ongoing battle between the government and local protesters fighting for greater regional autonomy, leading to further distrust of the newly announced operation and increased importance of uniting the Sunni population with the government.

Retaking Ramadi and Anbar from ISIS is strategically significant. Due to ISIS being a Sunni group, regaining a Sunni region from it would be an important military success. It would give the Iraqi government more control over its own lands, and it would be a demoralizing defeat for ISIS’s fighters, who have profited from sectarian fighting between Sunni and Shia Muslims by gaining trust among beleaguered Sunni populations in predominately Shia Iraq.

Despite the US and Iraq exchanging anger and hot words over the weekend as to the cause of Ramadi’s fall, American support is vital to defeating ISIS in Iraq. At the same time, it is crucial that the US and Iraq do everything possible to not alienate the Sunni population of Anbar, with whom they must be allied to defeat ISIS. Both must be ready to constrain Shiite militias from attacking Sunni civilians, a real possibility that will lead to the downfall of the operation.