Iraqi Forces Victorious in Baiji but Fighting for Lives in Anbar

Iraqi security forces, with the help of U.S.-led coalition airstrikes, retook the country’s largest oil refinery this past weekend in the city of Baiji, located about 145 miles north of Baghdad, from Islamic State (ISIS) fighters. While the Iraqis’ victory has strategic significance for both sides, the battle for Ramadi rages on in Anbar Province with much at stake.

Baiji has been hotly contested since first falling under ISIS control last summer. In mid-November, Iraqi forces and Iranian-supported/directed Shia militias regained the town only to lose it the following month. The Iraqis soon gained the upper hand once again in Baiji until last week when ISIS launched a partially successful offensive to retake the oil refinery.

The Iraqis’ most recent assault on Baiji was complimented by 47 coalition airstrikes in and around the city over the past nine days. According to General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, with the oil refinery and the city in hand, the Iraqis “will control all of their oil infrastructure, both north and south, and deny ISIL [ISIS] the ability to generate revenue through oil.”

Baiji is strategically significant because of its oil, and Iraq, as OPEC’s second-largest producer, could increase exports from 2.98 million barrels a day last month to 3.1 barrels a day this month. Furthermore, Iraq’s oil minister said Wednesday that the country’s oil production could rise to as much as 7 million barrels a day by the year 2020.

Beyond oil’s importance to Iraq, it has been a major source of funding for ISIS. The jihadist group’s ousting from the oil refinery could negatively affect its money-flow, although ISIS has other sources of oil in Syria and other sources of revenue on the black market.

Meanwhile, Kurdish peshmerga forces captured 32 square miles of territory from ISIS in northern Iraq with assistance from coalition airstrikes. At least 35 ISIS jihadists were killed.

Some Iraqi officials believe that ISIS attacked Baiji to distract Iraqi resources and personnel from Anbar Province, where ISIS is launching an offensive on Ramadi, the provincial capital. The jihadist group has repeatedly shown the ability to multitask and proceed on multiple fronts, something that the U.S. and Iraqis have not always effectively countered.

Two weeks ago, in the wake of ISIS’s defeat in Tikrit, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced an offensive into Anbar, Iraq’s Sunni heartland, to take back territory from ISIS, which is entrenched in several parts of Iraq’s largest governorate. ISIS then attacked Ramadi, and the strategic city was on the verge of falling until al-Abadi ordered more troops there on Saturday.

Police Major Khalid al-Fahdawi asserted the city was no longer “in immediate danger of falling,” but Ramadi remains under siege. According to Anbar provincial council member Sabah Karhout, “The danger is still there, but the situation is better than yesterday.”

Iraqi forces, however, are not alone fighting ISIS in Ramadi. Hezbollah Brigades, an Iranian-backed Shia militia and a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, deployed troops to Ramadi to fight ISIS. The group is separate from, but has ties to, the terrorist organization Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy group based in Lebanon. Hezbollah Brigades also proudly promotes past attacks on U.S. forces during the Iraq War on its website, despite receiving help from the U.S.-led coalition.

Other Shia militias, like the Popular Mobilization Committee, are fighting ISIS in Ramadi with Iraqi forces. This presence poses potential problems for Iraqi forces and U.S. interests going forward. Since Anbar is primarily Sunni, the people there are more likely to align with ISIS’s anti-Shia beliefs than other parts of Iraq.

Many Sunni tribesmen, who are experienced fighters from the Iraq War, have been hesitant, if not refusing, to join Iraqi forces against ISIS, even without Shia militias present. Shia militias fighting alongside Iraqi forces will further alienate Sunni tribes by enflaming sectarian tensions, likely leading to more Sunnis joining ISIS. Such a result would cause further chaos and violence in Anbar, regardless of who controls Ramadi in the coming days.