Is Iran getting ready to choke oil supply lines?

On January 30^th a boat piloted by a Houthi suicide bomber crashed into a frigate of the Saudi Royal Navy off the coast of Yemen. Due to the attacker yelling “Allahu Akbar, death to America, death to Israel” before crashing the Pentagon thinks the attack was meant for a U.S. Navy ship.

Basing this analysis on the attacker’s slogan is a mistake, since “Death to America…” is part of the Houthi rebel motto. This means that the Houthis probably use it when attacking troops and military installations that do not belong to the U.S.

The rebels have been engaged in a yearlong war with the Yemeni forces supporting of President Hadi and their Saudi allies.

Most of the support for President Hadi comes from a Saudi led coalition of Sunni states who have been bombing Houthi held cities and positions. The Saudi airstrikes and bombardments have caused a major humanitarian crisis in Yemen with aid workers being unable to penetrate Houthi held areas.

Since the Houthi Rebels are at war with Saudi Arabia it is entirely reasonable that they would launch an attack on Saudi ships.

Within two day of the attack Tehran announced that it has held another ballistic missile tests. The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that with these missiles Iran can hit moving objects such as ships.

So Houthi rebels are accused of conducting a suicide bombing of a Saudi frigate and within two day the head of IRGC proclaims that Iran has missiles that can strike warships. Since Iran has been supplying weapons and cash to the Houthi rebels, it’s reasonable to believe the two incidents might be connected.

In October Iran deployed battleships to the Gulf of Aden claiming that the purpose of the ships is to protect the Houthi rebels and “Iran’s interests on the high seas.” The Gulf is the main passage point for Saudi oil heading towards Europe.

If oil tankers could not pass through the Gulf then they would have to travel through the Horn of Africa. This rerouting would increase costs and travel time causing oil prices to rise.

Iranian battleships off the coast of Yemen, their new ballistic missile tests, and the Houthi boat attacks could be part of Tehran’s attempts to use the Rebels as proxies to force the Saudis to abandon the Gulf of Aden as a transit point.

With the use of ballistic missiles and suicide bombings the Houthis could force oil tankers to reroute and travel through the Horn of Africa. The rebels have already used boats to attack Saudi coalition forces in the past. The same tactics could be applied to oil tankers especially since they are not well armed like military ships.

Houthis have also used ballistic missiles to attack U.S. battleships. Last October Houthi missiles targeted USS Mason, but fortunately no American service members were hurt and the ship was not damaged. So using Iranian missiles against large and slow targets like oil tankers is possible.

Using Houthis as proxies would allow Iran to escape U.S. retaliation while at the same time hurting America’s Saudi and European allies. Tehran could avoid direct military confrontation while at the same time choking off one of the main point for oil shipments.

The Iranians might also use the Gulf of Aden to test U.S. resolve in case Tehran goes through its promise of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which would effectively block most of the world’s oil supply.

If the Americans and the Saudis allow the Houthis to inflict enough damage on oil tankers that they would be forced to reroute their shipments it might convince Tehran that the U.S. is not serious about its commitments in the region. Emboldened by U.S. failure to defend the Gulf Iran could try to force a confrontation at Hormuz hoping that Washington would back away again.

Plus, the Gulf narrowest point is 18 miles compared to the Strait’s 21. Given how close both are in size, blockading the Gulf of Aden could be used as a practice round for choking the Strait of Hormuz.

By supplying the Houthi rebels and firing missiles Iran could be testing U.S. resolve. So far Washington has failed to stop either, which could push Tehran to further increase its influence in the region.