Islamic State Puts Pressure on Damascus

Syrian airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Palmyra have failed to stop IS’s march towards the Syrian capital of Damascus. About two weeks ago, IS took control of the ancient city of Palmyra, and has since executed more than 400 Syrian residents. Furthering their advance towards Damascus, IS militants have successfully seized major phosphate mines, one being the second largest in Syria. Despite reports of IS’s most recent advance towards Damascus, the group already has seized territory right outside the capital. In mid-April, IS overthrew a Yarmouk refugee camp near southern Damascus. The invasion of the refugee camp came as a surprise to Palestinians, who had a long-standing agreement with the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front who controlled multiple checkpoints into Yarmouk. It has been reported that Nusra and IS formed a tactical alliance, leading Nusra militants to allow IS forces into the camp and to keep Palestinian forces out.

It is now possible that the weapons the US is providing Syrian rebels could end up in the hands of IS militants as rebels fight alongside the Nursa Front which provides rebels with a greater military might. While Islamic State has continued to condemn Al Nusra, particularly for its association with other Syrian rebels considered “nationalists” by IS, they have repeatedly shown a willingness to engage in tactical cooperation to achieve short term objectives.

Despite concerns of IS may be planning to seize Damascus, it is unlikely they will attempt such a feat in the near term. A more likely outcome is to compare the situation to when IS grew closer to Baghdad, the group did not immediately attempt to seize the capital, as it was  too difficult of a battle for them right away.

With that said however, it is likely that IS will launch attacks on towns surrounding Damascus as it did just outside of Baghdad to attempt to cut the city off, and to apply pressure.  Damascus is certainly in a more precarious situation then Baghdad however, when the Iraqi capital can count on the support of some 60,000 Shia militiamen to reinforce the city. If the Damascus were to fall, it would likely be to a coalition of forces, including Islamic State, Al Nusra and other rebels, and it’s not clear if such an agreement would be possible or how long it would last.

Despite the unlikelihood of IS seizing Damascus or Baghdad, it remains essential for the US to increase and expand its military efforts . If Islamic State were to succeed in overthrowing a capital, particularly an ancient and historically significant one like Damascus or Baghdad, its already impressive ability to promote itself as the preeminent Jihadist organization and established Caliphate would increase exponentially.