Islamic State Suicide Attacks Likely to Continue In Saudi Arabia

A suicide bomber clad in traditional Muslim female attire detonated himself outside of a Shi’ite mosque in Dammam, Saudi Arabia early Friday afternoon. The Islamic State (IS) was quick to claim responsibility for the blast that left four dead, including the bomber. The attack comes just one week after another IS suicide bomber in Saudi Arabia killed 21, and left 81 injured at a different Shi’ite mosque. Both incidents occurred in predominantly Shi’ite neighborhoods in a kingdom that is 85-90% Sunni. IS attacks in Saudi Arabia began in January when four IS jihadists, one wearing a suicide vest, assaulted a border security post, killing three Saudi guards.

This string of attacks is not surprising as IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced his group’s desire to conquer Saudi Arabia in November of last year. There are several reasons why IS has set its eyes on the birthplace of Islam. The kingdom’s religious leaders have deemed IS the “greatest enemy of Islam,” and Riyadh has assisted the US and other Western nations in air strikes against IS fighters in Syria. Furthermore, as the world’s largest producer and exporter of oil, Saudi Arabia is a prime target for IS; conquering the kingdom would greatly increase the group’s stronghold on the region and its global influence. More than 2,000 Saudi nationals are suspected of leaving the country to join IS ranks, prompting Baghdadi to urge these individuals to launch attacks on Shi’ites in-country.

Despite more IS-trained insurgents returning to Saudi Arabia, whole scale IS invasion of the Kingdom is unlikely in the near future. IS’s success in conquering territory in Iraq and Syria is primarily linked to both states’ weak governments, which has not the case in Saudi Arabia, which has demonstrated its ability and willingness to defend its border in the Yemen conflict, for example. In June 2014, the Saudi’s constructed a 600-mile fence along its border with Iraq to keep out jihadists. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has a sophisticated intelligence network, including agencies on the civilian and military levels, and “next-generation” radar technologies. IS likely recognizes Saudi Arabia’s strength, and will attempt to chip away at it using continued attacks, in hopes of fomenting further sectarian divide among Saudi Shiites and the House of Saud.