Jakarta Attack Shows IS Making Ground in Southeast Asia

Earlier this morning in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, a police substation came under attack by Islamic terrorists. Five attackers claimed the lives of two individuals, an Indonesian and a Canadian, while opening fire on a densely packed mall.

After unloading their weapons at security forces, the attackers apparently detonated suicide vests, wounding roughly 19 people during the entire ordeal. SITE intelligence group reports that the attack was planned and executed by the Islamic State (IS).

It is believed that the attack was planned by Bahrun Naim, an Indonesian fugitive who fled the ocuntry to the IS stronghold of Raqqa, Syria. Naim is also the leader of an IS cell in Southeast Asia by the name of Katibah Nusantara.

This attack illustrates the expanding reach of IS. The organization had little impact on Southeast Asia in the past, but in recent months they have apparently expanded their reach. The Diplomat, a news source that focuses on Asia, reported that IS has declared “Isnilon Hapilon – the leader of the Abu Sayyaf in Basilan – as the overall leader of the so-called Islamic State in the Philippines.” An unnamed terrorism expert at The Diplomat believes IS is looking to create at least one foothold in Asia by the end of 2016.

IS may be even closer to establishing, or may have already established, a more expansive foothold than some terrorism expert believes. The Daily Mail lists a map of all the affiliates associated with IS. Within the map it shows at least five organizations in the Philippines and another two in Malaysia.

While IS has just begun to move into Southeast Asia, it has been receiving recruits from the area for some time now. The New Strait Times reported two Malaysian IS recruits killed 33 people in two suicide bombings last week. Aside from the two suicide bombers, the Malaysian government estimates that around 150 people have been arrested for trying to join IS.

Indonesia is the most populous Muslim majority country in the world, providing IS with a large body from which to draw recruits. From June 2014 to December 2015 the number of IS followers from the region went from 86 to 514. This fast-paced growth may be attributed to IS gaining affiliates in the region, but the main take away is they are growing at an accelerated pace. With the exposure of today’s attack IS could possibly see another increase in their followers.

There is a long history of Islamic terrorism in Indonesia. In 2002 the organization Jemaah Islamiyah, an Al Qaeda (AQ) affiliate, car bombed the Sari nightclub in Bali. The attack left 202 dead and another 100 wounded. Following their attack on the Sari nightclub, in 2009 Jemaah Islamiyah claimed responsibility for the bombing of a Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels in Jakarta. The bombing left eight dead and another 50 wounded.

IS now begins to create a foothold in a region that saw over 1200 attacks in 2013 alone, 95% of which occurred in the Philippines and Thailand. The U.S. has not ignored Southeast Asia’s problems as Southeastern Asian nations and the U.S. have cooperated on counterterrorism efforts in the recent past. With IS looking to establish a greater influence in the area, it would not be surprising to see U.S. interest in the region pick up even more.

Southeast and South Asia, stretching from India to Indonesia, holds 62% of the world’s Muslim population. It is imperative that the U.S. works with Southeast Asian governments to counter the terrorist activity.