Japan’s looming disaster: Time to wake up

Suppose Mt. Fuji was rumbling, sending out tremors, venting steam, and scientists were 90% sure it would soon erupt.  Japanese citizens would feel a sense of crisis, as would the Japanese government.  And they would prepare and take countermeasures.

Japan faces an equally grave threat in its ‘neighborhood’, but Japanese citizens don’t seem particularly concerned – and Nagatacho and Kasumigaseki appear only slightly more worried.

The threat?  A potentially seismic geopolitical shift that risks destroying Japan’s defenses, economic independence, freedom of movement, and ability to shape not only the future of the Indo-Pacific, but its own destiny as well.

The epicenter is Beijing, and the early tremors can already be felt.

One can’t fault the Chinese Communist Party for being coy.  It openly says the things it wants – then goes about getting them.  And some of the things it wants are the South China Sea, Nansei Shoto and Taiwan.

So far, China’s expanding and accelerating efforts to assert control are meeting with considerable success.

Take the South China Sea.  Beijing laid claim to nearly all of it, and then systematically dug in, sometimes literally, building islands and turning them into military bases.  Now, with an increasingly powerful and permanent presence of the Chinese navy, coast guard, and maritime militia, Beijing is on track to be able to have de facto control over the strategic waterway through which most of Japan’s trade and energy shipments flow.

Closer to Japan, the Chinese pressure and encroachment around the Senkaku Islands are such that the Japan Coast Guard and the Self-Defense Forces are nearly  ‘overwhelmed’ – as they will privately admit.  And remember that the PRC considers the Senkakus as just ‘the appetizer’ before seizing the entire Nansei Shoto.

If China takes control of the South China Sea and/or the Senkakus it will be disastrous for Japan.

But the bigger looming danger to Japan is a PRC controlled Taiwan.

For years wise Japan Self-Defense officers have said ‘Taiwan’s defense is Japan’s defense’.  To understand why, consider what happens if Taiwan comes under Chinese control:

• Controlling Taiwan means the PRC has breached the so-called ‘first island chain’ that currently hems in Chinese forces and is the front-line of American, Japanese, and partner nation defenses in East Asia.
• The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will have ‘outflanked’ Japan’s southern defenses in the Nansei Shoto, to include U.S. bases on Okinawa. And Chinese ships, submarines, and aircraft will operate routinely to the west, south and east of Japan (and with Russian acquiescence, north as well).  In effect, Japan will be surrounded – just like in 1945.
• Beijing can restrict or even stop sea and air transport to and from Japan.
• China can isolate Japan from Southeast Asia, meaning it loses direct access to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf.
• All commerce through the South China Sea will be vulnerable to interdiction by the PRC.
• Operating from bases in Taiwan, Chinese forces will have free access into the Pacific Ocean – and also be able to cut off alternate shipping routes to Japan.
• It is equally true that Taiwan is key to America’s defense. America’s days as an Asian power will be finished. American prestige will collapse by virtue of being unable protect Taiwan’s freedom.
• Most nations in Asia – except perhaps Japan and Australia – will scramble to cut the best deal possible with Beijing, and move away from the United States. Tokyo and Canberra will also have their doubts.
• The South China Sea will be irretrievably lost, and likely the Senkakus, if not all Nansei Shoto as well.

Is China really serious? Yes. China is serious when it says it will take Taiwan.  It prefers to take Taiwan without fighting, but make no mistake, if it can’t take Taiwan through political warfare, it will attack militarily.  The People’s Liberation Army is armed and trained precisely for launching a full-scale assault on Taiwan.

By when might China attack Taiwan?  Admiral John Aquilino, the commander of USINDOPACOM told the U.S. Senate recently that a Chinese attack might happen before 2027 – and maybe even considerably before then.  If Admiral Aquilino, who has access to all the intelligence says this publicly, things are serious.

Where are the Americans in all this? Around 2010, Captain James Fanell, the then-head of intelligence at U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet warned of the Chinese threat, specifying that given the trends, the 2020s would be the ‘decade of concern’, in which a Chinese attack became ever more likely. He was widely ridiculed within the military and in Washington.  He was right, however, and his warnings are now becoming common wisdom.

Starting with the Trump administration, the U.S. government seems to have finally woken up – after decades of hoping China would become liberal and friendly and the ‘Taiwan problem’ would go away.  To his credit, President Trump authorized increased arms sales – and of more useful hardware – and also offered more political support to Taiwan.

The Biden administration appears to be continuing the Trump administration’s policies towards Taiwan – and has issued strong statements of support for as well as meeting with Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the U.S., and continuing loosening restrictions on meetings between U.S. and Taiwanese officials.

Can the U.S. counter China in a battle for Taiwan? Here’s the big problem:  statements of support are ‘just words.’  And, unfortunately, Chinese military power has reached a point that Xi Jinping and China’s communist leaders might believe that even if America tries to defend Taiwan from attack, the U.S. forces will be unable to arrive in time – or even arrive at all.

And they may be right.  The military balance in East Asia has shifted. The Chinese navy can deploy ten ships for every one the U.S. Navy can sail into the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea.  PLAAF (China’s air force) is becoming formidable force, and China’s ‘rocket force’ of thousands of long-range missiles poses a threat to U.S. forces – including aircraft carriers at sea, and U.S. bases in Japan.  And PLA operational capabilities are steadily improving.

Chinese forces could possibly defeat American forces in certain scenarios – especially a fight close to the Chinese mainland – and Taiwan is only 90 miles away.

So, while the U.S. government understands Taiwan’s importance, it may be unable to successfully intervene in the event of a Chinese assault.  The U.S. can apply financial and economic pressure on Beijing, but direct military support will be a challenge.

Such is the result of the United States keeping its eyes primly averted while China undertook the largest, fastest military buildup since World War Two – if not in history.

What should the U.S. do now? Among other things, the urgent need is to help Taiwan’s military break out of decades of isolation.   For over forty years the American and Taiwanese militaries have not trained with each other – except for one small instance in 2017 when a small Taiwan Marine platoon trained with U.S. Marines in Hawaii.

Break this isolation and it will improve Taiwan’s military capabilities and give Taiwan’s civilian population and leadership an important psychological boost – motivating them to improve their own defenses that have been allowed to deteriorate to an alarming degree.

Unfortunately, there is no indication that this is what Team Biden will do. Keep in mind that U.S. corporate and financial interests have immense political influence in Washington and push to keep restraints on dealings with Taiwan so as to not disrupt business activities with the PRC.  Not so different than Japan, one might suggest. 

So what should Japan do? The danger facing Japan is clear:  China is intent on seizing Taiwan and, if it does, Japan’s economy, territory and even national independence will be a risk.

What to do?  In short, build up JSDF capabilities, fully integrate Japanese and U.S. forces, and provide overt support for Taiwan – and not just verbal support.

Let’s think through what that would mean and how to make it work.

After 75 years of American protection, Japan is overly dependent on the United States, not just domestically but regionally.  Even though Taiwan’s defense is one of Japan’s vital interests, Japan has never done much, if anything, to provide meaningful support to Taiwan.  Instead, it has expected the Americans to ‘take care of things.’

Unfortunately, America can no longer ‘take care of things’ by itself in Asia, or anywhere else.  Japan needs to take radical measures to improve its military capabilities.  On the bright side, the more Japan does the more it will strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance.  For example, an improved JSDF will augment U.S. combat power – and help the joint defense of Japan and the region – while hopefully giving pause to PRC aggressors.

Also, the political and psychological effects of Japan genuinely improving its military (and spending the money to do so) will add useful ‘balance’ to the Japan-U.S. relationship, and reduce friction caused by the perception in Washington that Japan is a ‘free rider’.

That doesn’t mean Japan going it alone.  Japan, by itself, will be unable to defend against the PRC.  China’s defense capabilities – actual and potential – are greater than anything Japan can reasonably develop. Not even Japanese nuclear weapons will help.  Beijing just might say, “go ahead – for every one you fire, we will fire 10.” But combine improved Japanese resources with American capabilities and both nations’ chances improve.

Here are seven specific steps Japan can take to make that happen:

1. Recognize that today’s JSDF is incapable of fighting a war. The Japanese military is not built, equipped, configured, or trained to fight an actual war against a serious opponent. And the Chinese are a serious opponent.  This may surprise many people in Japan (and in America) but it is true.  The JSDF needs to change its entire mindset and get to work – or better said, Japanese politicians had better allow it to do so.

2. Develop joint capability so the Air, Maritime, and Ground Self-Defense Forces can operate together. Currently they cannot, and that is embarrassing. This, however, is a prerequisite for an effective, modern military.

3. Spend more money on defense, and spend it better. There should be 10% budget increases a year for the next five years and personnel should be prioritized. Currently JSDF misses recruitment by 25% each year.  The men and women of the JSDF are dedicated, professional, hard-working and care deeply about their country.  They should be properly paid and treated, and joining the JSDF should be a source of pride and receive public respect.  Also fund more JSDF training.  Only once personnel and training are covered, spend on necessary hardware and equipment – not shiny, high-priced objects that have nothing to do with a coherent national defense scheme.

4. Fully integrate U.S. and Japan forces for a combined defense of Japan. There is currently no headquarters in Japan or anywhere else where U.S. forces and JSDF staff organize and conduct necessary activities to defend Japan and surrounding areas. This is unforgivable.  Create this headquarters and do it fast. And include Taiwan’s defense as part of the overall defense scheme.

4. Make defense of Nansei Shoto a fully combined U.S.-Japan effort. Train, exercise, and patrol together throughout the Nansei Shoto (and in areas near Taiwan), and establish a joint headquarters on Okinawa – the Joint Task Force (Nansei Shoto).

5. More regularly deploy the JSDF further afield throughout the Indo-Pacific with American and partner nation forces – both “Quad” nations and others.

5. Take immediate steps regarding Taiwan, including:

• Draft a Taiwan Relations Act that states that Taiwan’s de facto independence is essential for Japan’s security and that Japan will do what’s necessary to at least ensure the status quo is not changed by Chinese force or coercion.
• Either with the Americans or alone, Japan should break Taiwan’s military ‘isolation’.
• Exchange liaison officers with the Taiwan armed forces.
• Cooperate with Taiwan and the United States in the humanitarian assistance/disaster relief field, making use of each nations’ amphibious forces.
• Have the Taiwan Air Force and Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) train together on Guam, while the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Taiwan Navy begin routine training operations.
• Invite Taiwan to participate in Missile Defense activities and North Korean sanctions enforcement operations.
  Have JASDF fighters from Okinawa (along with U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Marine aircraft) join the Taiwan Air Force on escort missions when the Chinese PLA Air Force flies around Taiwan looking to intimidate.
• Have the Japan Coast Guard join the recently agreed U.S.-Taiwan Coast Guard coordination group.

It is breathtaking (and depressing) that an article like this needs to be written.  The Chinese threat was obvious a decade or two ago, and Taiwan’s importance to Japan defense is equally obvious.  Unfortunately, too many in Japanese government, business, academia and media ignored the tremors threatening to undermine Japan – and Japanese citizens.

It’s not too late, but time is running out.

So wake up Japan!

Either do what’s necessary or be prepared to ask Beijing for permission when you want to sail your ships, fly your planes, trade with your neighbors, or visit Taiwan, the South China Sea – or Nansei Shoto.  Or even to do just about anything else.