Jihad in East Africa, Russia in the Middle East, Refugees Everywhere

Kenya thwarts terror plot

A routine security screening at the Garden City mall, one of the largest in Nairobi, resulted in the arrest of three Kenyan suspects after an IED was found in one of their bags.  With Kenyan security and the public on high alert since the atrocity at the Westgate mall in 2013, Inspector General Joseph Boinnet, Kenya’s police chief, was quick to downplay the incident. It seems that this easy catch was more than likely a probing of the security posture at shopping centers.

In light of the fact that al-Shabaab has threatened Kenya as retribution for its sending troops to Somalia as part of the AMISOM force, terror operations are expected to follow.  For now, al-Shabaab is on the offensive, attacking AMISOM bases and continuing to operate at will in southern Somalia, despite the presence of a coalition of six African nation forces.  While al-Shabaab has retreated into the countryside after losing territory it previously controlled, the AMISOM forces lack the decisive means to defeat them, due in part to not deploying air power.  Deficient intelligence also plays a role, as al-Shabaab employs the element of surprise to attack bases and capture AMISOM personnel.  It is crucial for AMISOM to adapt in order to counter the asymmetric warfare techniques al-Shabaab is using.

Must read: AMISOM must change tactics against al-Shabaab

Syria and Russia contradict each other in public, closely align in private

Seeking diplomatic cover as well as saving face in light of the loss of the Idlib airbase after a two-year siege by JAN and the Islamic Front, Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi denied reports that Russia was expanding its role in the war in the form of aircraft and troop deployments.  Meanwhile, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed that Russian military experts are in country in an advisory role, which is usually the first step in expanding a military presence.

This all comes amidst reports of a Russian nuclear submarine deployment to the Mediterranean and troops being transported to Syria, preparing for escalation as the rebel factions and IS continue making gains against Assad.  Meanwhile, the US is warning Russia over the escalation, as the air operations against IS are now hampered by Russian flights over northern Iraq, following Greece and Bulgaria’s accepting Washington’s request to deny overflight rights to Russia over their airspace.

The loss of the Idlib airbase to al-Nusra is significant, as the payoff for the investment by the Saudi and Qatari regimes into the Islamic Front bears dividends.

Multiple countries engaging against IS, refugee issue haunts efforts

As Russia gets its Syrian operation underway, Australia is the latest country to announce air strikes against IS, as well as accepting 12,000 Syrian refugees.  Joining the US-led coalition and Russia, it seems that each country is going their own way in its response to the Caliphate as well as the refugee crisis.

As Europe struggles to cope with the humanitarian disaster, the question that must be asked is: where are the wealthy Persian Gulf countries? By leaving the issue to the West, they abdicate their responsibility to fellow Arabs and Muslims, while paying lip service and donating to refugee camps.  Clearly, countries such as Qatar and the UAE have the money and resources to resettle those fleeing both Assad and IS, yet their silence speaks volumes.

Now that Australia, a secular country far away from the conflict zone, has offered to accept some refugees, it is important to step back and realize that this is the manifestation of the globalization trend coming full circle.  While championed in the 90’s as a method of opening borders and increasing trade leading to greater cooperation, it is now also used by refugees who find the doors closed by their neighbors where they should be open.

Venezuela offers to accept 20,000 Syrian refugees in spite of food shortages and rampant violence

As Venezuela continues its conflict with Colombia over what its terms “economic war,” President Nicolas Maduro has offered to resettle 20,000 Syrian refugees in what it calls a goodwill gesture to Bashar al-Assad, a long-time ally.  On the heels of the expulsion of hundreds of Colombians from the border region, this move must be seen with caution, as the ties between Venezuela, Iran, and Hezbollah are strong.

The refugees fleeing a warzone should be mindful of the fact that Venezuela currently boasts of having the world’s highest inflation rate, one of the highest murder rates, and chronic food and medicine shortages.  They should also look to the Colombian example: while the late Hugo Chavez accepted refugees from the Colombian conflict, giving them housing and citizenship in order to boost his popularity and electoral votes, Maduro is now expelling Colombians, accusing them of undermining the Venezuelan economy.