John Kerry’s defense budget

(Washington, D.C.): Even before the Congress formally declared George W. Bush the winner of last November’s presidential election, reports began circulating that he would propose a defense budget for next year that one might have expected instead from the loser, Senator John Kerry.

Actually, a President-elect Kerry probably would not have dared to suggest the far-reaching cuts Mr. Bush plans to make. In any event, he surely would have had a hard time getting them enacted, given pervasive concerns about his judgment on national security matters.

What is at Stake

Yet, here we have the spectacle of $55 billion in far-reaching defense reductions being made by the man who beat Sen. Kerry – largely on the basis of precisely those concerns. It is no exaggeration to say that Mr. Bush will be sworn in again on January 20th because he was widely perceived to be a more credible and robust leader than his challenger when it came to protecting this country.

As Donald Rumsfeld has observed, to considerable tut-tutting from the chattering classes, “You go to war with the army you have.” If President Bush does not reverse course, he will be condemning the U.S. military – perhaps on his watch, perhaps on those of his successors – to going to war with vastly inferior capabilities than they could have, should have and will need.

Worse yet, history teaches that such conditions not only leave us less prepared to fight and win. They tend to invite aggression that translates into conflicts that might otherwise have been avoided.

Ronald Reagan, who George W. Bush clearly admires and tries to emulate, offered an alternative approach. He called it “peace through strength.” And the military build-up that flowed from Reagan’s philosophy and leadership continues to this day to provide the backbone of America’s capacity to project power around the world. The fruits of his investment in modern weapon systems and the troops trained to employ them proved indispensable to success in the Cold War. They have also served us well to this point in today’s global conflict against terrorists and their state-sponsors.

Say It Ain’t So, W.

If President Bush makes the mistake – political, as well as strategic – of emulating defense-cutting Kerry Democrats, there will be adverse impacts especially for the services most critical to rapid power projection: the Navy-Marine Corps team and the Air Force. (The swift and effective response of naval and amphibious units and Air Force airlift to far-flung Asian communities’ disaster relief requirements following last month’s tsunami underscores the point.) Unfortunately, these units stand to be reduced to the condition of the U.S. Army – too small, inadequately armed and insufficiently flexible to meet various challenges – for which the Administration has lately been sharply criticized.

After all, in order to protect funding for combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Pentagon is applying the cuts the Office of Management and Budget has directed it to make to key R&D and procurement accounts. For example:

Nowhere is it more likely that John Kerry would have cut back Pentagon spending than in the portfolio of the Missile Defense Agency. Yet, here too, President Bush is said to be considering $5 billion in reductions over the next five years. If implemented, these could: essentially eliminate the most promising means of performing boost-phase missile intercepts (namely, using an airborne laser and/or from space); preclude building out the initial, very modest deployment of ground-based interceptors; and sharply curtail sea-based anti-missile defenses. So much for the robust, layered missile defense Mr. Bush has promised to put in place.

The Bottom Line

If the proposed defense budget cuts go forward, the American people would be entitled to feel they have been subjected to a classic “bait and switch.” They rejected the candidate whose record had been one of voting against every major weapon system. They accepted the Bush-Cheney team’s criticism of John Kerry that he could not be trusted to keep us safe. Now, the guys they elected seem poised to hollow-out the military in ways that will make the recent tempest over the lack of “up-armored” Humvees in Iraq pale by comparison.

The public understands the need for, and is prepared to make, sacrifices in time of war. President Bush must ask them to do so – and avoid unduly increasing those already being asked of the U.S. military.