Chairman of Joint Chiefs Downplays Ramadi Potentially Falling to ISIS

Islamic State (ISIS) is currently launching an assault on the Iraqi city of Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province. After gaining control of areas to the city’s north, taking villages to the city’s east, and already holding ground to its south, ISIS fought Iraqi security forces to Ramadi’s west on Friday in an attempt to surround the provincial capital.

Thousands of residents are fleeing the area as local leaders warn the city will fall unless they receive help. Specifically, people like Faleh Essawi, deputy chief of the Anbar provincial council, are pleading for more air support from the U.S.-led coalition and more assistance from Baghdad. While another council member, Farhan Mohammed, says Ramadi will survive, he expressed frustration at Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his government’s lack of seriousness in countering ISIS in Anbar.

Another provincial council member, Athal al-Fahdawi, asserted that Ramadi is in “great danger” and said ISIS suicide bombers have been targeting government buildings and checkpoints in the city. U.S. defense officials also believe Ramadi could soon fall to ISIS, a change from earlier this week when many from the Pentagon said this possibility was less likely.

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, played down the importance of Ramadi at a Pentagon news conference, going so far as saying, “The city itself is not symbolic in any way.” He elaborated, “It’s not been declared part of the caliphate on one hand, or central to the future of Iraq” and emphasized the city’s fall would not be a strategic defeat, is not central to U.S. aims in defeating ISIS, and would not expose weaknesses in current U.S. policy.

Ramadi, however, is important in the war against ISIS, and while a loss there would not end the Iraqis’ campaign in Anbar, it would have moral and strategic implications for both the U.S. and the region.

Ramadi was a major center of conflict during the Iraq War where several Americas fought and lost their lives. Al-Qaeda in Iraq – the precursor to ISIS – had, by the summer of 2006, declared Ramadi the capital of their caliphate. The U.S. had to launch a difficult offensive to retake the city, which cost great blood and treasure. Losing Ramadi to ISIS after the U.S. fought so hard for it would be a significant symbolic loss.

Furthermore, the Iraqi military moved into Anbar this week with a wave of confidence after driving ISIS out of Tikrit, albeit with help from Iranian-supported/directed Shia militias. Success in Anbar would keep momentum going forward and show the Iraqis have taken the upper hand from ISIS. Meanwhile, ISIS is looking to make up for its loss in Tikrit by gaining ground in Anbar, and success in this endeavor would affect morale for both sides.

Ramadi is also important as the capital of Iraq’s largest governorate (Anbar Province), only 70 miles west of Baghdad. Beyond being a relatively prominent city close to the country’s capital, its location in Anbar has significant implications for the security environment.

Anbar is known as the Sunni heartland of Iraq. Therefore, its population is more likely to be sympathetic to ISIS – which is fervently anti-Shia – than other parts of the country. ISIS is already entrenched in parts of Anbar, and many Sunni tribes in the area are reluctant, if not refusing, to help Iraqi forces. Several of these Sunni tribesmen are also experienced fighters who received insurgency training from 2003 to 2008. As a result, it will be difficult for the Iraqis to drive ISIS out of Anbar, especially if Ramadi falls.

Because Anbar is predominately Sunni, the Shia militias fighting ISIS will need to play less of a role in this offensive. Strong Shia action will enflame sectarian violence and perpetuate further chaos, which will only help ISIS. The Iraqi military may have to fight in Anbar alone, making any defeats all the more demoralizing for them.

While the fall of Ramadi would not drastically alter the situation on the ground, it would still be significant and have foreboding implications going forward. The city is part of the caliphate because ISIS views the entire region as its rightful empire. Therefore, the jihadist group will continue to try and expand, committing atrocities along the way, until met with countervailing force.