NATO member Turkey raises the stakes, shoots down Russian jet

In what could mark a turning point in the Syrian civil war, a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter jet near the Syrian border this morning after what Turkey claimed was a violation of its airspace and its multiple warnings to the Russian aircrew were ignored.

Speaking before a scheduled meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah in Sochi, President Vladimir Putin was visibly angry, accusing Turkey of facilitating the Islamic State’s oil sales and calling the jet downing a “stab in the back committed by accomplices of terrorists.”

The Turkish Air Force released a radar screen capture showing the flight path of the twin-seat Su-24 as it strays over a narrow sliver of land in southern Turkey.  According to a statement from the Kremlin, Turkish airspace was never violated and the jet was shot down over Syria.

What is certain is that Turkey has repeatedly warned against any violations of its airspace; in March of last year it shot down a Syrian jet that it also claimed strayed into Turkish territory, and last week a drone believed to be Russian was also downed.

The area in question is mostly populated by the Syrian Turkmen ethnic group, which has been fighting against Bashar al-Assad and has received military assistance from the Turkish government.  Footage from Turkish TV shows Turkmen fighters surrounding a dead Russian pilot, while the fate of the other pilot remains unclear; unconfirmed reports state he is also dead.

Turkmen rebels are also claiming to have destroyed a Russian helicopter on a search and rescue mission for the pilots with US-made TOW missiles.  Apparently, the helicopter made an emergency landing and its crew had departed before the rebels fired upon it.

Regardless of the purported airspace violation, downing a Russian fighter jet is a strategic gamble that could have far-reaching consequences; this is the first time a Russian jet has been shot down by a NATO member since the 1950s.  Soon after the news was reported, Turkey called for an emergency NATO meeting, which Putin notes it did even before officially notifying the Kremlin.

Turkey has been heavily invested in the Syrian civil war since its beginning, backing rebels seeking to topple Bashar al-Assad.  President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has positioned Turkey to reap the benefits of being a regional hegemon in the event that Assad is finally removed from power and replaced with a leader more to its liking.

While in the summer the jihadists supported by Turkey were making verifiable gains against the Syrian army and had Assad acknowledging his situation was dire, the Russian intervention last month halted those advances, frustrating Erdogan’s Syrian strategy.

Shooting down the Su-24 is likely a message to Putin: stop bombing Turkish ethnic brethren in Syria, and stay away from the Turkish border.  The Russian Air Force has also been reported to have been probing NATO air defenses in northern Europe. Unwilling to let Russia cross its red lines, Turkey took matters into its own hands.