Nigeria in flux

By Matthew Seitz

In April 2007, for the first time in the country’s history, Nigeria witnessed a peaceful transition from one civilian presidency to another. Past president Olusegun Obasanjo is the first Nigerian head of state to hand over power at the end of his constitutional mandate to the newly democratically elected president Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. Although the transfer of power went smoothly, the country is still plagued with political instability, conflict over oil wealth, and ethnic tension.

While Yar’Adua was the declared winner in the April election, he is hardly described as "democratically elected." Many Nigerian civil society organizations as well as international observers have unanimously deplored the massive rigging and poor organization of the election. The Carter Center judged that the voting in just two of Nigeria’s thirty-six states can be considered as "free and fair." As Obasanjo’s "hand-picked hair," Yar’Adua will be entering a crisis of legitimacy that will have a great impact on all areas of the country and government. In order to provide an air of legitimacy for his administration, Yar’Adua must get a handle on current conflicts and simmering tensions located throughout the country.

The first issue that will test the effectiveness of the administration is the crisis in the Niger Delta. Extensive corruption by the government has left this oil-rich region impoverished. Most of the citizens in the Delta states are living on less than $1 per day. Although the government has vowed to pay the Delta states a royalty of 12% on all oil and natural gas extracted, corrupt local officials continue to line their own pockets. In response to the lack of investment by the government, pollution from oil companies, and the corruption of local officials, citizens in the Delta states have taken up arms and have moved from peaceful protests to armed kidnapping and sabotage.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) is an insurgent group that demands compensation from petroleum companies for the pollution and deaths they have caused. The majority of citizens in the Delta states are fishers and farmers.   Due to oil spills in the area, soil and water has become contaminated and the locals have been left without jobs. If Yar’Adua wants to continue Obasanjo’s mission to increase the economy while decreasing the violence, he will have to arrange peace talks between the militant groups from the Delta, the oil companies, and the Nigerian government. This might be possible considering that unlike his predecessor, Yar’Adua has the temperament to make as much concession as is reasonable and necessary to accommodate the opposition. Heavy investment into the Delta from the oil companies and the government will offer jobs to the unemployed, education to the children, clinics to the sick, increase the standard of living, and help stem the violence and corruption that currently plagues the region.

Political instability and corruption is a trend the Nigerian government is trying to address. It is this same corruption and instability that led twelve northern states (with a Muslim majority) to adopt strict Islamic law known as Sharia’ah. Sharia’ah critically undercuts basic internationally- guaranteed freedoms that include freedom of religion and freedom of expression. The Nigerian constitution calls for due process of law and equality among men and women, both of which are often not upheld in states where Sharia’ah has been implemented. While President Obasanjo was in office, he preferred not to contend with the Sharia’ah issue. Yar’Adua unfortunately will not have that luxury and will have to address this issue directly if he wants to start establishing peace and security in his failing state.

The use of Sharia’ah law in the north has also provided a base for radical Sunni Muslim agents from Saudi Arabia and other middle eastern countries. From 2001 to the present, "scores of Pakistanis" have been charged and arrested with inciting violence and a group calling itself the "Taliban" was started in the northern frontier state of Yobe. The ethnic tension between the northern Muslim states and the southern Christian states are directly related to the use of Sharia’ah in the north. The Christian minority in the north is forced to follow and accept Shari’ah, which has led to riots between Muslims and Christians throughout the country leaving thousands dead.

In order to stop the spread of Muslim extremism and to help put an end to the ongoing ethnic conflict between the north and the south, Yar’Adua must end the use of Sharia’ah in the northern Islamic states. Considering half the population of Nigeria is Muslim, removing Sharia’ah law in the north will be no easy task. It will take patience from the President and restraint in the use of force on the part of the police and military. The most important thing to remember in dealing with Sharia’ah law and the Muslim states in the north is to maintain and follow the rule of law, not the rule of force. As long as the rule of law is followed, legitimacy for the government and the Yar’Adua administration may follow.

The task ahead for Nigeria’s new president is enormous, but the foundation for success is within reach. Systemic corruption is what led the country to the failing state that we see today. Putting an end to corruption should be Yar’Adua’s first priority, everything else will follow. Let’s just hope Yar’Adua cares for his country more than himself.

Matthew Seitz is an intern at the Center for Security Policy and an MS candidate in Missouri State’s Department of Defense and Strategic Studies.