What is the strategic importance of Okinawa?
In military matters, geography is supremely important. Okinawa (for convenience sake, referring to the entire Ryukyu Island chain and not just the main island of Okinawa) is “key strategic geography” by virtue of its location. Okinawa sits in between the southern Japan mainland, Taiwan, and China. And it is also close to the Korean Peninsula.
Whoever occupies Okinawa has an advantage. For US forces, Okinawa bases allow a “forward presence” that simplifies air, sea, and ground operations in the region. And this region is where today’s “great power rivalry” is playing out most intensely. Some argue that a fight with China is likely to break out in this neighborhood.
Okinawa bases facilitate offensive military operations, of course. But they are also useful defensively, although the difference between offensive and defensive operations is often a matter of interpretation.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has to tread carefully if it moves in the East China Sea. And even a Chinese assault on Taiwan would be vulnerable to US and Japanese forces operating out of Okinawa. Emplacing anti-ship missile batteries and anti-aircraft systems on Okinawa’s islands would also “close off” large areas of ocean to the Chinese Navy and Air Force, and could also “range” parts of Taiwan.
Also, Okinawa is a useful platform for surveillance and intelligence collection activities that are an indispensable part of military operations.
Looking farther afield, Okinawa bases also allow the Americans to operate more easily throughout the entire Western Pacific and beyond. The US Marine-led response to the 2015 Nepal Earthquake in fact was launched from Okinawa. Also, Okinawan bases are available in the event of a contingency on the Korean Peninsula.
China knows the answer.
China is well aware of Okinawa’s importance to Japan’s defense – and forward basing in particular. And it would like United States (and Japanese forces) gone.
Consider how China has built artificial islands and established military bases in the South China Sea. This “extends forward” People’s Liberation Army operating capabilities. It allows the PLA to dominate or control sea and airspace much farther from the Chinese mainland than would be the case without the islands. Okinawa provides similar advantages to whoever holds them.
And don’t forget the political significance of Japan defending its territory against Chinese aggression. China has stated its intentions to eventually “retake” Okinawa (the Ryukyus) and not just the Senkaku Islands. Tokyo is demonstrating political will, and the Japanese and the Americans joining for mutual defense of Japanese territory and to ward off Chinese expansion, is a clear sign of political determination by the world’s two major democracies.
How might US forces on Okinawa be used in the case of a conflict with China over, say Taiwan?
Potentially as launch points for attack by air and naval forces against Chinese forces. But also for the Marines and Army when employing long range precision weapons, air and missile defense systems. This will help prevent Chinese forces from operating in the area. US air forces (and to a lesser extent naval forces) operating from Okinawa are also part of the defensive web.
Don’t forget that Okinawa is just as important to Japan and Japanese forces as it is to American forces. And for the same reasons. But the Americans are the ones that have the real capability to operate farther afield against the PLA.
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3d Reconnaissance Battalion Marines Parachute Over Okinawa, Japan by U.S. Indo-Pacific Command is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
