Overnight raids in Paris miss their target

Update: since this article was published, unconfirmed reports state that Abdelhamid Abaaoud has been killed.  More information to follow.

Acting on footage of one of the drivers in a getaway car taken during the attacks on bars and restaurants in Paris last Friday, along with information from electronic surveillance suggesting that an attack was imminent, French authorities conducted a raid overnight in an apartment in the Paris suburb of St. Denis, a “sensitive urban zone” known as one of the most dangerous in the city. The operation resulted in the death of two suspects, including a woman wearing a suicide vest, along with seven arrests.

The suspected leader of the Paris attacks, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, was thought to be in the apartment.  However, his whereabouts are unknown.  Reports place him in Europe as well as Syria, where French airstrikes have been targeting him as well.  Multiple reports state that he is the “mastermind” of the attacks, yet US intelligence analysts are casting doubt on this characterization due to the complexity of the operation.

While Abaaoud is clearly a highly dangerous individual who is on record stating that he “travel[ed] to Europe in order to terrorize the crusaders waging war against the Muslims” and has been on the most wanted list owing to his role in the failed train attack last summer, it is more than likely that he acted as an operational commander, receiving orders from higher-ups in Syria and coordinating the logistical aspects within the cell based in Brussels.  The fact that he was able to move about Belgium and France undetected made him a highly valuable asset.

The highly complex Paris attacks show that the Islamic State has expanded its ability to exercise command and control across increasingly large distances.  The attacks, which were carried out with military precision, suggest that by making Abaaoud a media fixation, the attention of the authorities may be directed at someone deemed expendable by the Islamic State due to his extremely high global profile.

While his capture is highly desirable, both for the sake of justice and the information he may provide regarding jihadist networks and planned operations in Europe, Abaaoud is just one of the many mid-level targets that is easily replaceable in the Islamic State’s existing European network.