Paris, Yemen, and Drones

Reports on Friday indicated that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claimed to have “directed” the jihadist January 7^th attacks on the offices of the French magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris in which twelve people were killed.  Since AQAP operates out of Yemen, where it appears that the United States has not used drones to target jihadists since early November, it would not be surprising to see an uptick in U.S. drone strikes on targets in that country during the course of the next few weeks.

If that is indeed what is coming, the Obama administration should consider two things to make its drone operations more effective in Yemen, and elsewhere if needed:

1. Resource manpower as well as hardware. According to recent reporting, the U.S. Air Force is deeply concerned that the service is suffering from a major lack of drone fleet operators, jeopardizing its ability to meet growing Pentagon demand for combat air patrols (CAP) – and the strain is taking its toll.  Dave Majumdar at the Daily Beast notes:

The Air Force has enough MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper drones. It just doesn’t have the manpower to operate those machines. The Air Force’s situation is so dire that Air Combat Command (ACC), which trains and equips the service’s combat forces, is balking at filling the Pentagon’s ever increasing demands for more drone flights…

The Air Force has been forced to raid its schools for drone operators to man the operational squadrons that are flying combat missions over places like Iraq and Syria. As a result, training squadrons—called Formal Training Units (FTU)—are being staffed with less than half the people they need. Even the Air Force’s elite Weapons School—the service’s much more extensive and in-depth version of the Navy’s famous Top Gun school—course for drone pilots was suspended in an effort to train new rookie operators.

Overworked drone crews have had their leaves canceled and suffered damage to their careers because they could not attend required professional military education courses.

The result is that drone operators are leaving the Air Force in droves…

The White House recently stated it intends to release its FY 2016 budget request on February 2^nd.  The budget request should reflect recognition of this problem and offer any necessary funding adjustments to ensure that we have not only the requisite number of drones for the missions that lie ahead, but also the requisite number of pilots, intelligence analysts, and support crews necessary to operate these platforms without creating irrecoverable burnout amongst these critical personnel.

2. Reassess unnecessary, counterproductive constraints on drone strikes. In May of 2013, President Obama gave an address at National Defense University in which he articulated a policy that severely limits the circumstances in which a drone strike is permissible: “…and before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured — the highest standard we can set.”

As I commented at the time, this standard goes above and beyond what have historically been the proportionality requirements of the international law of armed conflict.  Proportionality doctrine does not demand that there be zero civilian casualties resulting from striking a military target – rather, it requires that any civilian casualties anticipated to result from such a strike not be excessive relative to the military advantage expected to be gained from it.

Aside from being legally unnecessary, this constraint is counterproductive as well.  Announcing a policy of refusing drone strikes unless there is a “near certainty” of zero civilian casualties only guarantees that AQAP operatives will surround themselves with civilians whenever possible to avoid being fired upon by drones.  President Obama needs to reverse course on this approach and pursue terrorist organizations consistent with the law of armed conflict and the needs of U.S. national security, not the dictates of his base.