Presence of Jihad Threatens Stability of Kazakhstan Regime

Three civilians and one police officer have been killed in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s biggest city, after a man with suspected jihadist ties shot a number of residents;  Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s president, described the shooting as a terrorist attack. The attacker allegedly shot a police officer guarding a police station before stealing his automatic weapon and opening fire in central Almaty, killing one civilian and wounding a number of police officers. He then stole a civilian’s car and drove to a military intelligence building, where he shot two additional officers. In an apparent trend, the attacker proceeded to steal yet another vehicle before engaging police in a final shootout; no additional officers were killed.

Police successfully detained the shooter and identified him as 26-year-old Ruslan Kulikbayev, a man previously imprisoned for robbery and illegal possession of weapons. Kulikbayev was also wanted for the murder of a woman earlier this month.

In prison, Kulikbayev appears to have associated with Kazakhstan’s Salafi movement; Salafis advocates a return to Islam as practiced by Mohammed and his earliest followers.

The recruitment of Muslims to jihad in prison is a threat in multiple countries, including the U.S., France and the United Kingdom.

The attack comes nearly one month after a group of Islamic State sympathizers in Aktobe, a city in the northwest of the country, killed three civilians in an apparent raid on an arms shop; the attackers then crashed a minibus into a national guard base, killing three security officers.

Kazakhstan has historically experienced fewer jihadist attacks than its neighbors, in part because of a strong impetus towards secularism. But the two attacks within a six-week span raise questions over the jihadist presence in the Central Asian county. According to Al Jazeera, dozens of Kazakh nationals have joined IS, including one child soldier who was filmed executing two alleged Russian spies.

Largely secularist President Nursultan Nazarbayev has been praised for turning Kazakhstan into the most prosperous Central Asian country and one of the wealthiest former Soviet states. But Nazarbayev’s rule has grown increasingly authoritarian, with members of the political opposition being marginalized, jailed, and, in some cases, murdered. Protests over a recent land reform code which allows foreigners to rent land for up to 25 years has drawn criticism from many Kazakhs, who claim that the reforms will lead to wealthy Chinese investors buying out their land and migrating to Kazakhstan. Moreover, declining oil prices, Kazakhstan’s main export, have hit the economy hard. In the face of economic downturn and discontent with the regime, Nazarbayev is likely to face continued challenges to his authoritarian rule. This risk is only increased if the regime cannot demonstrate that it can maintain security in the face of continued jihadist threats.