President Trump probably spoke with Kim Jong-un; If he dies there likely is a succession plan

Originally published by National Interest

Editor’s Note: This is part of a symposium asking what happens if Kim Jong-un died. To read the other parts of the series click here.

As someone who watched North Korea in a series of U.S. government national security jobs over twenty years, there is one thing I know about expert assessments of the inner workings of the Hermit Kingdom: they are constantly wrong. This is in part because North Korea is such an extremely closed and secretive country. But it also stems from the determination of North Korean officials to hide and deceive about activities within the country from outsiders. As a result, there is a long list of predictions by well-known experts of North Korean nuclear and missile tests that never occurred. There also have been many assessments of North Korean officials who disappeared and were presumed dead who later reappeared.

Since the North Korean regime knows it is being closely watched, especially by the United States, assessing developments within the country based on what Pyongyang chooses to make available can be hazardous to an expert’s reputation.

For these reasons, I have been skeptical of recent news reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has died or is seriously ill. This could be the case since there is credible information that he may have health problems.  His father Kim Jong Il, who died at age seventy in 2011, reportedly suffered from obesity, heart disease, and diabetes. The elder Kim also was a heavy smoker and drinker.

Kim, reportedly thirty-six, is obviously obese. U.S. officials who met with him at the Vietnam and Singapore summits reported that he appeared winded after short walks and heard him wheezing. Kim also reportedly is a heavy smoker. These factors are consistent with reports that Kim underwent heart surgery last month, but they don’t confirm this report.

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