Prigozhin & Surovikin gone, Wagner’s back to fight

Wagner troops are in Belarus training the army there. More Wagner troops are now in a convoy on their way to Belarus. A spokesperson for Wagner and one of its top leaders have released videos with essentially the same bottom line: they will defend the fatherland and support Russia’s military and civilian leaders.

Wagner’s troops are back and private military contractor appears to be positioning to play a strategic role for Russia and Belarus.

A new head for Wagner has been selected. He is Andrei Troshev, a highly decorated Russian army veteran, a colonel, 70 years old, who played a major role in Syria where he was directly involved in military operations. His nom de guerre is Grey Hair.

The cofounder and éminence grise of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has disappeared.

On June 29th Russian President Vladimir Putin held a Kremlin meeting with about 30 Wagner commanders, including Prigozhin. (General Sergey Surovikin, another missing player, did not attend the June 29th meeting.)

This three hour-long meeting, according to the Kremlin, came with an offer from Putin. He is reported to have said that all of the Wagners “can gather in one place and continue to serve and nothing will change for them. They will be led by the same person who has been their real commander all this time.” That person, Putin said, is “Sedoy,” using the Russian word for Grey Hair.

In reply Prigozhin said, “No, the guys do not agree with this decision.”

Prigozhin’s reply effectively terminated his control of Wagner. After the meeting, on either June 4 or 5, Russian police and the FSB (Russia’s successor to the KGB) raided Prigozhin’s large estate in St Petersburg.

Different reports popped up, some saying that Prigozhin had gone to his mansion in St Petersburg in a limousine to pick up his money and guns that were seized previously. Another report had him reporting to FSB’s offices in St Petersburg, doing the same thing.  But in both cases these were rumors and no eye witnesses came forward.

It seems, in retrospect, that these stories and others were designed to keep Prigozhin’s actual fate under wraps.

The Prigozhin-led attack aimed at Moscow on June 24 was a near disaster for Putin. The Russian leader was moved out of Moscow as a security precaution. Loyal forces, including Chechens, presidential guards and police, were moved in to protect the Defense Ministry in Moscow, Prigozhin’s main target.

Prigozhin apparently believed that key leaders in the army, aside from Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov, would support his takeover, purge the defense minister and chief of staff and put Prigozhin and, perhaps, Surovikin in charge of Russia’s armed forces.

Putin would be handed a fait accompli. Either he could accept the change or, in Prigozhin’s view, he would be replaced. Prigozhin saw himself as Russia’s power broker and, depending on how things turned out, perhaps Russia’s new President.

Putin, it seemed, also was unsure about the loyalty of the army. That uncertainty was no doubt prompted by concern over “General Armageddon,” Sergey Surovikin.

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