Protests Continue in Burundi, Threaten to Destabilize East Africa

Protesters in Burundi burned a man alive in the street on Thursday, asserting he was a member of the CNDD-FDD ruling party’s Imbonerakure youth wing, a militia that has perpetrated violence against opposition forces and is accused of targeting ethnic Tutsis. Also on Thursday, a mob of protesters attacked Jean Claude Niyonzima, another suspected member of the Imbonerakure, who managed to escape and hid until government forces fired shots in the air to disperse the crowd.

At least three people were killed in total from fresh clashes between police and protesters, which were triggered by Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza’s comments Wednesday that his reelection is the only way to bring peace and stability and that protests must stop. While Nkurunziza said he will not run for a fourth term, Burundi’s leader made clear he will pursue his bid for a third term in office. The election is in June.

Nkurunziza has been Burundi’s president since 2005, when a democratic government was formed after a 12-year ethnic civil war between Hutus and Tutsis killed over 300,000 people. Burundi’s Constitution and the Arusha Peace Agreement that ended the civil war both limit the presidency to two five-year terms.

Protests erupted in late April after the CNDD-FDD announced Nkurunziza’s nomination, resulting in at least 15 deaths and hundreds more wounded. The Burundian constitutional court ruled this week that Nkurunziza could legally run again for president, although the judges were reportedly threatened and pressured to rule in the government’s favor.

African Union Commission Chief Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma warned of Burundi holding elections given the crisis, stating, “What type of election is going to take place under these conditions? As the AU we were planning to send long-term observers but we can’t now.”

Both the United States and United Nations have condemned Nkurunziza’s actions and have expressed concern over the situation. One western diplomat threatened that international funding for polls could be cut if no peace is reached. Moreover, opposition leader Agathon Rwasa called to postpone the election because “the credibility of the electoral process is already in doubt.”

The Burundian crisis is triggering fears of resurfacing Hutu-Tutsi ethnic conflict, which could spread throughout the Great Lakes region of Africa. Ethnic tensions in neighboring Rwanda, for example, remain present after Hutus slaughtered 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus in 1994, leaving it susceptible to spillover from Burundi.

Most of the nearly 40,000 Burundians who have fled the country since mid-April are Tutsi, indicating possible persecution by the Hutu government. The CNDD-FDD was a leading Hutu rebel group during the Burundian civil war, and Nkurunziza became its leader. It is telling that most refugees have fled to Rwanda, a Tutsi government, rather than neighboring Tanzania and Democratic Republic of Congo, although some have gone there.

Foreign ministers from four east African countries – Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda – met in Bujumbura, Burundi’s capital, on Wednesday and announced an emergency meeting on May 13^th in Tanzania to further discuss the crisis. Opposition leader Audifax Ndabitoreye was present at the meeting and was arrested by authorities the same day before being released.

East African states have economic concerns about the Burundian crisis. Burundi’s economy has grown by 4% annually since 2012, and several multibillion-dollar projects – like new roads and rail lines – require a strong Burundian economy. As business commentator Nebert Rugadya phrased it, “A stable Burundi means a lot for stability in the region. Burundi in chaos jeopardizes these ambitious economic plans.

While Burundi’s government offered to release detained demonstrators and reopen radio stations if “the insurrection” stops, do not expect the crisis to placate given both sides’ commitment. Beyond humanitarian issues and the potential to spark larger ethnic clashes, the situation in Burundi threatens the stability of east Africa and eastern Congo.