Qadaffi’s End? And What Will Replace Him?

Frank Gaffney appeared on the BBC to discuss the end of the Libyan regime, amid fighting outside Qadaffi’s compound in Tripoli. Transcript and video is below.

BBC: Let’s take you live to Washington now and that is the president for the American Center for Security Policy, Frank Gaffney. Frank Gaffney, thanks very much for your time. I think it’s fair to say your view on these things and the Center’s view tends to be to the right of center. You have reservations about the rebels and their transitional council, I think?

FRANK GAFFNEY: Well, let me be clear. I’ve been opposed to Muammar Gaddafi back when everyone agreed he was an internationally recognized terrorist. I’ve been opposed to him when Scotland and Britain and the United States agreed that he was actually not an internationally recognized terrorist anymore. And I’ve been in favor of his overthrow throughout, including under this revolution. But I do think we’ve got to be concerned about what’s coming next. We do-simply don’t know very much about this transitional council. What we do know about it, I think, is that it has some unsavory folks in its wings and I believe that it is likely, as elsewhere throughout history, that we’ll find in this instance, that those who prevail tend to be the most organized, the most disciplined, and the most ruthless. And my guess is that that will be some variation on the Islamist spectrum, the Muslim Brotherhood, perhaps, al-Qaeda, perhaps, and that’s of grave concern indeed when you think this is a rather substantial country from which to plot and mount terrorist attacks in the future. It is a country that has something like two percent of the world’s oil reserves, a lot of money. All of those are grounds for, I think, real reservations to temper the enthusiasm about what seems to be the end of the Gaddafi regime.

BBC: Although, to be fair, quite a lot of analysts are suggesting that the al-Qaeda connections are very insubstantial. Does it concern you, for instance, this coming from the leader of the National Transitional Council, who’s saying he was worried there could be revenge attacks and said that if military commanders ignored him and carried out reprisals, he would resign. That doesn’t speak of a united rebel group, does it?

FRANK GAFFNEY: No, and I think that’s exactly what I’m speaking of. I think there are probably, in this group as there were in Egypt and have been in some of the other Arab Spring uprisings, people who are authentically in favor of democracy, of freedom, of tolerance, who are likely to be shunted aside and my concern is that just because we haven’t seen al-Qaeda’s banner at the forefront, does not mean that that’s not who is indeed wielding many of the arms or who will come into a vacuum of power. We know, for sure, that many of the people who were fighting American and British and other forces in Iraq hailed from Libya. And I think, you know, a disproportionately large number, in fact, as a percentage of the population. But the question is, what will the role be of such individuals in this environment? And my guess is, is that if they’ve got the guns, if they have military experience, they’re likely to assert themselves later if not sooner. And that could be trouble for all of us.

BBC: Frank, you seem to be personally more skeptical about the National Transition Council than you were about some of the people who are coming in to help lead the new Iraq some time ago. Ahmed Chalabi, for instance, who turned out to be not really such a good thing. That’s quite interesting. I mean, what lessons have you learned from all that? What’s different now?

FRANK GAFFNEY: Well, look, I think Ahmed Chalabi is a character who is flawed, to be sure. He is a fellow who has vastly too close ties to Iran for my taste at the moment. And yet, I think when he was moving into Iraq after a long stay in the United States, it was pretty clear that he was not part of al-Qaeda. And in that sense, I think there was a qualitative difference between the two. But my difficulty is this. There are people who come to the fore in sort of revolutionary or transitional circumstances, if you will, and whether you think of them as your friends or you think of them as your enemies, I think you’ve got to be clear-eyed about it. And I sense, as we hear a lot of talk about freedom and democracy and we all hope for that for the people of Libya, my guess is that they’re going to be denied it before too long by the very people who have effected this liberation. I hope I’m wrong.

BBC: Frank Gaffney of the American Center for Security Policy. Frank, thank you very much.

–Monday, August 22, 2011