Risks for NATO in Ukraine drone strikes on Russian territory

On August 29, Ukraine launched its most massive drone attack on Russian territory to date, including an attack on Pskov airfield near the Estonian border where at least two and perhaps as many as four Il-76 jet transport aircraft were destroyed.

The Il-76 is a large multi-purpose, fixed-wing, four-engine turbofan strategic airlifter that also can be configured for special missions. It is a workhorse of the Russian Air Force used to transport troops and supplies.

These aircraft have been produced since 1971 and are still manufactured. The Il-76 is also operated by civilian organizations in Russia and abroad. The aircraft in various versions has been sold to more than a dozen foreign operators.

The significance of the attack on Pskov is the location of the airfield in northwestern Russia. It is 38.1 miles (61.3 kilometers) from an Estonian border post Luhamaa. Pskov is some 500 miles (800 km) from Ukrainian territory, which has raised serious questions about where the drone or drones were launched from in the attack.

For drones to operate at long range, they need special communications capabilities. US drones including the RQ-4 Global Hawk, the RQ-1/MQ-1 Reaper and the RQ-170 Sentinel use satellite communications and radio relays.

Drones such as the Reaper carry air-to-ground missiles and are equipped with very sophisticated radars and electro-optical gear. Ukraine does not knowingly have drones like these.

The Russians think that the drone launched on Pskov came either from a clandestine launch on Russian or Belarusian territory or from Estonia. There have been other attacks deep in Russian territory that suggest drones were smuggled into Russia, even close to Moscow.

The Ukrainians have also carried out sabotage operations on Russian territory, often involving Russian citizens, just as they also have done in Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine.

The Russian press provides almost no information about attacks inside Russia unless they catch the perpetrators, which occasionally happens. However, social media outlets do provide photos and videos of locations in Russia that have been hit.

Some sabotage is aimed at military targets, but there are plenty of targets such as office buildings, shopping malls and warehouses. Internal security in Russia seems incapable of stopping or even reducing the frequency of sabotage operations.