Russia ramps up rhetoric in wake of downed jet

Outraged by the downing of a Su-24 jet that appears to have violated Turkish airspace, Russian president Vladimir Putin is vehemently denouncing Turkey, highlighting its in helping the Islamic State smuggle oil and facilitating the passage of foreign fighters into Syrian territory controlled by IS.  At the same time, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov accused Ankara of a “planned provocation.”

Turkish president Erdogan is undeterred, insisting that the lethal response came after repeated violations of Turkish airspace and sovereignty by Russian aircraft.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the organization “stands in solidarity with Turkey” but made no further comment beyond that.  In a joint press conference with French president Francois Hollande, President Obama blamed Russia for the incident, saying that their flights near the Turkish border are an “ongoing problem with the Russian operations.”

Perhaps mindful of Russian adventurism in the Caucasus, Georgia, and Ukraine, countries and regions that share geographical proximity to Turkey, Erdogan decided to take aggresive action to halt Russia’s probing of Turkish air defenses.

In the short term, Russian bombing of Turkmen rebels operating close to the Assad stronghold and location of Russian airbase Latakia also called for a response by Erdogan, who has staked nearly all his foreign policy credentials on Assad’s ouster and invested heavily in backing Syrian rebels.  The fact that the Turkmen rebels, who are ethnic relatives of the Turks, publicly appealed for Erdogan’s help also appear to have played a major part in the decision to risk a confrontation with Russia.

Both Putin and Erdogan’s perceived and real reputations as strongmen not to be questioned or provoked are well-established.  Sharing similar governing styles and designs to revive the aura of long-lost empires, they are both adept at exploiting events for political advantage.  Putin is now faced with a decision on how to respond, yet he must proceed carefully with a NATO member, second largest customer of Russian gas, and major competitor in the Syrian proxy war.