Situation Report: Israel and Hamas – Technological escalations and approaching a new phase

The last 24 hours have seen a continued technological escalation of Hamas’s capabilities, but also considerable success in Israel’s systematic effort to destroy Hamas’ leadership, operational capacity, tunnels and infrastructure.

The most worrisome technological developments in the last 24 hours regarding Hamas are the appearance of “suicide drones,” (drone-bombs used by other Iranian proxies in Iraq and Saudi Arabia). Hamas has introduced heavier warhead-payload missiles and the ability to launch hundreds at once.  It also has effectively used Coronet anti-tank missiles to kill an Israeli soldier.

On the Israeli side, the IDF unleashed shocking power, producing scenes of precise strikes in Gaza against isolated floors in buildings, specific houses and multi-floor buildings (always done with early warning issued to reduce civilian casualties) and the identification and penetration of tunnels (seen social media videos from Gaza showing multitudes of terrifying chain explosions triggered).  The IDF displayed to all immense technological capability when we witnessed live-streams of surreal scenes which put even Hollywood “Star Wars” special effects choreographers to shame of hundreds of Israeli interceptor missiles rising over Tel Aviv to strike incoming Hamas missiles.

The IDF also is delivering a long and rapidly growing list of dead, senior and operationally-critical Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders, attesting to tremendous intelligence skill and penetration as well as a highly effective real-time capability to wed intelligence to immediate action.  There is no doubt that in a classic military sense, Israel is taking Hamas to the cleaners, and will likely in the coming hours and days shock with even deeper penetrations and operations.

But the psychological picture is reverse, and war is as much a psychological affair as it is a military one.

The shock Israeli society has sustained from this war is deep, both because of the magnitude and sophistication of Hamas’s abilities.  Hamas struck hard into Israeli houses and cities in about 80% of the country, especially its population centers.  Hamas brought life to a standstill by dictating a full-stop of transport infrastructure over a week.  It launched the first successful strike on Israeli basic infrastructure, hitting the oil terminal in Ashdod. It has in some measure finally overwhelmed Israeli air defense.  Some missiles killed civilians although it is important to note that the vast majority of missiles heading toward populated targets were stopped.  But with 2,000 missiles fired, a one percent miss rate leaves 20 missiles with possibly 150-plus kilogram warheads (A-120 Raad al-Attar missile) still falling on targets. Hamas sent a missile that penetrated a reinforced shelter in children’s nursery, meaning they might have wedded an anti-tank warhead or bunker-buster technology onto a missile.

Hamas has commanded the following of and operational control (inciting and strategically directing) over Palestinians in Judea and Samaria, as well as enough Arab mobs in Israel to set an agenda of internal strife and breakdown that threatens to unravel the social fabric of peaceful cooperation between Arabs and Jews, thus threatening the very existence of the state. Ominously and sadly, this was the first unprovoked incident of Jewish violence against an Israeli Arab citizen.

Indeed, there seems to have been a directed escalation in the use of firearms in several attacks on Jews yesterday, and a sophisticated “mob” attack on an Israeli border guard installation this morning which might have resulted in the seizing of weapons by Arabs. Hamas has successfully created a profound sense of attack and the collapse of personal safety in every aspect Israeli life.  Hamas also still commands the ability to create the perception that its controls events in Jerusalem, even on the Temple Mount. And perhaps most worrisome, it is beginning to trigger a regional sense among nations who signed a peace treaty with Israel that Israel is a paper tiger. This threatens the survival of these treaties.  In short, psychologically, Hamas is in control on every level and every aspect strategically.

The two most serious potential approaching developments – and there are signs of both – is that the Arab uprising against Jews turns to firearms and “hot” weaponry.  These also are increasing signs Israel may be moving to a ground invasion of Gaza.