Slovenia Nears Independence as Croatia Faces Civil War: G-7 Leaders Said to See Croats Destined for War

BY: Marc Fisher
The Washington Post, July 20, 1991

Leaders of the world’s most powerful nations reluctantly agreed this week that they can do
nothing to prevent civil strife in the Yugoslav republic of Croatia, German diplomatic sources
said.

Leaders of the Group of Seven industrial democracies, at their three-day summit in London,
concluded that while European Community diplomacy has prevented the spread of bloodshed in
the republic of Slovenia, a clash between Belgrade’s Serb-dominated federal army and the
Croatian National Guard appears to be inevitable, the sources said.

But the summit participants also are said to have concluded that the establishment of a United
Nations peacekeeping force for the area — considered the best chance to prevent open war in
Croatia — is beyond their reach.

The obstacle is a clear Soviet message that Moscow would veto any attempt to use U.N. forces
to settle an internal Yugoslav dispute. Sources said the Soviets will resist any move that could set
a precedent for “internationalizing” nationalist conflicts such as those that plague Soviet President
Mikhail Gorbachev’s government.

“Without a U.N. force, Croatia is destined to suffer civil war,” a senior German official said.
“Nothing can be done.” He said the hatred between Serbs and Croats is so deep and lasting that
both sides are beyond reasoning.

“The alternative to a U.N. force is a European intervention,” the official said. “But the very idea
of Germany or Austria or Italy being involved in such an action is politically impossible. History
forbids it.” Already, some Yugoslav politicians and commentators have complained vociferously
about German participation in the European diplomatic effort to prevent bloodshed, accusing the
Germans of “expansionism” and a lust for a “Fourth Reich.”

In their joint statement on the Yugoslavian situation, the Group of Seven leaders said “it is for
the peoples of Yugoslavia themselves to decide their future.” The leaders went on to say they
“will do whatever we can, with others in the international community, to encourage and support
the process of dialogue and negotiation.”

A German source said the statement was, “of course, toothless. There wasn’t anything else to
say because the war is inevitable.”

Although the Yugoslav government and Slovenia agreed to a cease-fire and are expected to
hammer out a secession agreement in the next three months, no formal cease-fire is in force in
Croatia. There, diplomats said, the Yugoslav People’s Army continues to transfer heavy
equipment and Serbian units into Croatian territory.

German Chancellor Helmut Kohl this week continued his country’s effort to press Yugoslavia
toward some compromise. Despite misgivings among several European leaders, Kohl received
Croatian President Franjo Tudjman in Bonn Thursday, the first time a European leader has agreed
to see him since Croatia seceded June 25.

Tudjman wants the Europeans to extend their non-military observer mission, now limited to
Slovenia, to his republic as a sign that foreign countries will help Croatia stand up to the Yugoslav
army.

Kohl, who called Tudjman’s presence an “informal working visit,” resisted making any statement
that could be construed as a formal recognition of Croatian independence. But Tudjman said that
Kohl’s willingness to see him was “very useful for Croatia.”

Tudjman said his visit to Bonn showed that “I do not believe there will be an army intervention
in the next 48 hours. But you cannot be sure what will happen in the next 48 days.”

Croatian Defense Minister Sime Djodan said Wednesday that he anticipated that the federal
army would move to crush his republic’s independence bid by the end of this weekend.