Soft Targets, Not Symbolism, Mark July 4th Terror Alert

The media is seizing on comments from former CIA Director Mike Morell, to raise fears of upcoming attacks over the July 4th holiday. Morrell told CBS news, “I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re sitting here a week from today talking about an attack over the weekend in the United States. That’s how serious this is.”

While The FBI and DHS have released a bulletin warning of potential attacks against law enforcement officers and military personnel, and the FBI is establishing multiple command centers around the country to monitor any potential terrorist threats around the July 4 weekend, there have been no specific or credible threats identified. Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson encourages people to attend Independence Day events but to remain vigilant.

More important to the threat matrix over the July 4^th weekend is the fact that it takes place over the Muslim holiday of Ramadan. Islamist terror groups have repeatedly demonstrated an uptick of attacks during Ramadan, and both Islamic State, and the Al Qaeda affiliate Al Shabaab has set a goal of attacking Christians during Ramadan (which lasts until July 17). Al Shabaab indicated that it intended to give disbelievers a “true taste of jihad”.

Typically Islamic terror attacks have more focused on dates that are significant to perpetrators than the victims. Examples include September 11^th, which corresponds to the defeat of Muslim armies in the 1683 Siege of Vienna, and the 1^st WTC attack, which was scheduled to occur on the anniversary of the ground offensive for the 1^st Iraq war but delayed by 3 days, taking place February 26th.

Typically Islamic Terrorists have not used western holidays as significant dates on which to conduct attacks. The possible exception to this is the foiled Christmas Day bomb plot by the so called “underwear bomber.” Notably Christmas is a Western religious holiday, and was chosen for that reason, according to Anwar Al Awlaki who said it represented, “the holiest and most sacred days to you, Christmas Day.“ This is a reminder that jihadists view themselves as engaged in a civilizational/religious conflict, rather than a nationalist conflict.

That said, British authorities did recently foil a jihadist plot to explode a pressure cooker bomb at an Armed Forces Day parade. Notably, the selection of this target appears to be due to the large numbers of British armed forces who would have been present, rather than symbolism related to the date itself. The plotter told a British law enforcement informant, ” It will be big. We will hit the kuffar (unbelievers) hard InshAllah. Hit their soldiers in their own land. InshAllah. Soldiers that served in Iraq and Afganistan will be present. Jump in the crowd and detonate the bomb. They think they can kill Muslims in Iraq and Afganistan then come back to the UK and be safe. We’ll hit them hard InshAllah. By Allah you wont be wasted Akhi (brother).”

July 4th celebrations are likely to make attractive targets because they facilitate the gathering of large crowds in public places, as well large gathering of military personnel in uniform (such as during parades). As Chairman Michael McCaul, for the House Homeland Security Committe recently explained , it is the combination of Ramadan, the one-year anniversary of Islamic State declaring its caliphate coinciding with America’s Independence Day which raises particular concerns.

Americans should exercise caution and remain alert this July 4th, and every day, especially if participating in events near large crowds. But the threat of jihad terror stems primarily from the enemy’s ideological motivations, not reactions to American displays of patriotism .