Syria: As U.S. Troops Retreat, Adversaries Gain Ground and Chaos Ensues

On Monday October 7^th, President Trump announced the pullout of U.S. troops from Syria.

Shortly after, the Turkish military began as President Trump announced sanctions imposed on former and current Turkish officials and an in increase in tariffs on Turkish steel in retaliation.

U.S. troops were fully withdrawn from Northeast Syria to other parts of the region to monitor ISIS activity. U.S. troops stationed at Al-Tanf garrison, a military base located near Syria’s southern border with Jordan, remained in place.

With the U.S. backing down, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) desperately negotiated a deal – in coordination with the Kremlin – with the Syrian government, allowing Syrian troops to enter Northeast Syria to help fight against Turkey’s offensive. The agreement creates opportunities for both Russian and Iranian forces to gain ground and influence in the region. Sinam Mohamad, an SDF foreign political representative , said that the SDF may become a part of the Syrian military.

As U.S. troops vacated the Syrian-Turkish border town of Manbij, Russian troops filled the void and patrolled the border to prevent a confrontation between the Turkish and Syrian militaries.

On Friday October 11^th, Turkish forces shelled an area close to U.S. forces stationed in Kobane, Syria, forcing the U.S. to further retreat south. As a NATO member, Turkey likely had intelligence showing where U.S. troops were stationed.

There are reports of Turkish bombings of SDF-held prisons and camps for ISIS fighters and their relatives, allowing members of ISIS to escape.  Ain Issa, a camp with about twelve thousand ISIS relatives in Northeast Syria, has seen about 800 relatives of foreign ISIS fighters escape from the camp, spiking concern about ISIS resurgence.

The Turkish intelligence agency (MIT) have helped jihadists enter Syria and provided methods of evading Western surveillance. Erdogan has widely turned a blind eye to ISIS activities in the region.

Yesterday, Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Pompeo reached a ceasefire agreement with Erdogan in Ankara.

According to the agreement, Turkey will pause military operations for 120 hours. U.S. troops will then facilitate the withdrawal of YPG forces from the 20 mile-wide ‘safe zone’ created by Turkey. Turkey must also refrain from military action in the town of Kobane.

After the 120 hours, there will be a permanent Turkish ceasefire and the U.S. will withdraw the sanctions imposed earlier this week. Turkey and the U.S. will mutually operate prisons and camps where ISIS fighters and their relatives are held.

While the agreement calms concerns of a mass ISIS prison break, it grants Turkey unilateral control of a safe zone with dimensions similar to those previously rejected by the U.S.