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In 2014, Russia’s Vladimir Putin seized large swaths of Ukraine with a hybrid technique utilizing both local insurgents and military forces in unmarked uniforms known as “little green men.” Both Crimea and the eastern Donbas regions of Ukraine contained large populations of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers who were more sympathetic to Moscow than they were to Kyiv. Putin leveraged these conditions to avoid the many pitfalls of a conventional military invasion of a sovereign nation while reaping all the benefits.

In this occasional paper, Center Senior Fellow Grant Newsham asks, “could China pull off the same strategic coup vis a vis Taiwan?” Newsham argues that while significant geographic and political differences exist, that the eventuality is not impossible. Taiwan is separated from mainland China by a 112-mile strait, but deep trade and cultural ties make the distance shorter than it may seem.

Most Taiwanese are galvanized against the prospect of oppressive Chinese Communist Party (CCP) control, especially after the CCP’s stunning absorption of Hong Kong, yet as recently as 2016 a Kuomintang (KMT) government of questionable resolve against Beijing held power in Taipei. Newsham argues that a substantial “Fifth Column” is already in place and can count on well-established smuggling routes to move people, weapons, ammunition and equipment. While such irregular forces would not be able to hold territory for significant periods, they may hold out just long enough to pave the way for a more conventional CCP force to take over. Opinions from other experts in the field round out this study of unconventional threats to Taiwan’s security and sovereignty.

While studies of a full-scale assault on Taiwan are numerous and necessary, it is also important to examine this angle on the central geostrategic question of our time.

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